3 matches are on Thursday's card at Washington, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Anna Kalinskaya against Janice Tjen in the round of 16. Our calls: Kalinskaya over Tjen, Shnaider over Potapova, Pegula over Frech.
Pick: Pegula
Win probability: 79% Pegula · Sets: 2 (70%) · most likely score 2-0 (58%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Jessica Pegula goes up against Magdalena Frech in the Washington round of 16. Jessica Pegula is 7-3 across recent matches. Magdalena Frech has dropped 4 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.
Jessica Pegula simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. If Pegula plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Shnaider
Win probability: 60% Shnaider · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)
Thursday's Washington round of 16 pits Anastasia Potapova against Diana Shnaider on hard. Diana Shnaider has won 6 of the last 10. Anastasia Potapova comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Diana Shnaider is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Shnaider around 60%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Shnaider.
Pick: Kalinskaya
Win probability: 53% Kalinskaya · Sets: 2 (67%) · most likely score 2-0 (36%)
Thursday's Washington round of 16 pits Anna Kalinskaya against Janice Tjen on hard. Anna Kalinskaya has won 7 of the last 10. Janice Tjen comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
Anna Kalinskaya is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Kalinskaya around 53%. Kalinskaya comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Kalinskaya is exactly that — a lean.
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