2 matches are on Saturday's card at Los Cabos, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Cameron Norrie against Denis Shapovalov in the semifinal. Our calls: Norrie over Shapovalov, Wong over Gea.
Pick: Norrie
Win probability: 53% Norrie · Sets: 2 (58%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Cameron Norrie goes up against Denis Shapovalov in the Los Cabos semifinal. Cameron Norrie has won 4 of the last 10. Denis Shapovalov has won 5 of the last 10.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Norrie gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Wong
Win probability: 51% Wong · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (28%)
Arthur Gea and Coleman Wong meet in the semifinal at Los Cabos on Saturday. Coleman Wong has won 6 of the last 10. Arthur Gea is 8-2 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Wong has been winning 73.6% of first-serve points to Gea's 67.1%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Wong fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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