6 matches are on Saturday's card at Washington and Los Cabos, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Brandon Nakashima against Taylor Fritz in the semifinal. Our calls: Fritz over Nakashima, Norrie over Shapovalov, Pegula over Shnaider, Wong over Gea, Osaka over Eala, Shelton over Tabilo. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.
July 31, 2026 results: 13-6 → how our picks graded, match by match.
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A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Brandon Nakashima goes up against Taylor Fritz in the Washington semifinal. Taylor Fritz is rolling — 3 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Brandon Nakashima brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Fritz fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Fritz
Win probability: 59% Fritz · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Cameron Norrie goes up against Denis Shapovalov in the Los Cabos semifinal. Cameron Norrie has won 4 of the last 10. Denis Shapovalov has won 5 of the last 10.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Norrie gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Norrie
Win probability: 53% Norrie · Sets: 2 (58%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Diana Shnaider goes up against Jessica Pegula in the Washington semifinal. Jessica Pegula is 8-2 across recent matches. Diana Shnaider has won 6 of the last 10.
Jessica Pegula is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Pegula around 68%. The edge belongs to Pegula — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Pegula
Win probability: 68% Pegula · Sets: 2 (66%) · most likely score 2-0 (47%)
Arthur Gea and Coleman Wong meet in the semifinal at Los Cabos on Saturday. Coleman Wong has won 6 of the last 10. Arthur Gea is 8-2 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Wong has been winning 73.6% of first-serve points to Gea's 67.1%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Wong fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Wong
Win probability: 51% Wong · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (28%)
Alexandra Eala and Naomi Osaka meet in the semifinal at Washington on Saturday. Naomi Osaka has won 9 of the last 10. Alexandra Eala comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Osaka's 71.1% behind the first serve (against 60.3% for Eala) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Eala comes in off a compressed schedule; Osaka comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Osaka — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Osaka
Win probability: 62% Osaka · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Alejandro Tabilo goes up against Ben Shelton in the Washington quarterfinal. Ben Shelton comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Alejandro Tabilo is 4-6 across recent matches.
Shelton's 74.5% behind the first serve (against 71.1% for Tabilo) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Shelton.
Pick: Shelton
Win probability: 63% Shelton · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)