2 matches are on Saturday's card at Washington, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Brandon Nakashima against Taylor Fritz in the semifinal. Our calls: Fritz over Nakashima, Shelton over Tabilo.
Pick: Shelton
Win probability: 63% Shelton · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Alejandro Tabilo goes up against Ben Shelton in the Washington quarterfinal. Ben Shelton comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Alejandro Tabilo is 4-6 across recent matches.
Shelton's 74.5% behind the first serve (against 71.1% for Tabilo) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Shelton.
Pick: Fritz
Win probability: 59% Fritz · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Brandon Nakashima goes up against Taylor Fritz in the Washington semifinal. Taylor Fritz is rolling — 3 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Brandon Nakashima brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Fritz fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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