10 matches are on Sunday's card at Toronto, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Elisabetta Cocciaretto against Talia Gibson in the first round. Our calls: Cocciaretto over Gibson, Andreescu over Bartunkova, Birrell over Golubic, Boisson over Ruzic, Blinkova over Sramkova, Stearns over Ruse, and 4 more. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.
The boldest call on the card: Boisson over Ruzic — the market disagrees with us there.
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Sunday's Toronto first round pits Elena Gabriela Ruse against Peyton Stearns on hard. Peyton Stearns is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10). Elena Gabriela Ruse has dropped 3 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Stearns — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Stearns
Win probability: 62% Stearns · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)
Kamilla Rakhimova and Venus Williams meet in the first round at Toronto on Sunday. Kamilla Rakhimova has won 4 of the last 10. Venus Williams limps in on a 10-match losing skid, just 0 wins in 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Rakhimova gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Rakhimova
Win probability: 56% Rakhimova · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
Sunday's Toronto first round pits Kimberly Birrell against Viktorija Golubic on hard. Kimberly Birrell comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Viktorija Golubic is 6-4 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Birrell has been winning 64.8% of first-serve points to Golubic's 58%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Birrell fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Birrell
Win probability: 53% Birrell · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Elisabetta Cocciaretto and Talia Gibson meet in the first round at Toronto on Sunday. Elisabetta Cocciaretto comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Talia Gibson is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (3 of the last 10).
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Cocciaretto gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Cocciaretto
Win probability: 52% Cocciaretto · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
Sunday's Toronto first round pits Bianca Andreescu against Nikola Bartunkova on hard. Bianca Andreescu is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10). Nikola Bartunkova has won 5 of the last 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Andreescu is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: AndreescuUpset call
Upset call — the market favors Bartunkova; our numbers say Andreescu.
Win probability: 52% Andreescu · Sets: 3 (45%) · most likely score 2-0 (28%)
Sunday's Toronto first round pits Camila Osorio against Lucrezia Stefanini on hard. Camila Osorio comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Lucrezia Stefanini comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
Osorio's 61.6% behind the first serve (against 55.2% for Stefanini) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Anything other than a Osorio win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Osorio
Win probability: 79% Osorio · Sets: 2 (67%) · most likely score 2-0 (56%)
Sunday's Toronto first round pits Cristina Bucsa against Moyuka Uchijima on hard. Cristina Bucsa has dropped 6 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten. Moyuka Uchijima comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
Cristina Bucsa simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Bucsa should have enough here, though Uchijima has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Bucsa
Win probability: 61% Bucsa · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)
Leolia Jeanjean and Magdalena Frech meet in the first round at Toronto on Sunday. Magdalena Frech comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Leolia Jeanjean comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Magdalena Frech is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Frech around 60%. Frech should have enough here, though Jeanjean has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Frech
Win probability: 60% Frech · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)
Sunday's Toronto first round pits Antonia Ruzic against Lois Boisson on hard. Lois Boisson limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10. Antonia Ruzic is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10).
Boisson's 68.2% behind the first serve (against 61.3% for Ruzic) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Boisson gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: BoissonUpset call
Upset call — the market favors Ruzic; our numbers say Boisson.
Win probability: 56% Boisson · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Anna Blinkova goes up against Rebecca Sramkova in the Toronto first round. Anna Blinkova is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10). Rebecca Sramkova is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (5 of the last 10).
Anna Blinkova is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Blinkova around 53%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Blinkova is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Blinkova
Win probability: 53% Blinkova · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)