4 matches are on Sunday's card at Toronto, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Kimberly Birrell against Viktorija Golubic in the first round. Our calls: Birrell over Golubic, Bucsa over Uchijima, Rakhimova over Williams, Osorio over Stefanini.
Pick: Rakhimova
Win probability: 56% Rakhimova · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
Kamilla Rakhimova and Venus Williams meet in the first round at Toronto on Sunday. Kamilla Rakhimova has won 4 of the last 10. Venus Williams limps in on a 10-match losing skid, just 0 wins in 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Rakhimova gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Birrell
Win probability: 53% Birrell · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Sunday's Toronto first round pits Kimberly Birrell against Viktorija Golubic on hard. Kimberly Birrell comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Viktorija Golubic is 6-4 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Birrell has been winning 64.8% of first-serve points to Golubic's 58%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Birrell fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Osorio
Win probability: 79% Osorio · Sets: 2 (67%) · most likely score 2-0 (56%)
Sunday's Toronto first round pits Camila Osorio against Lucrezia Stefanini on hard. Camila Osorio comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Lucrezia Stefanini comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
Osorio's 61.6% behind the first serve (against 55.2% for Stefanini) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Anything other than a Osorio win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Bucsa
Win probability: 61% Bucsa · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)
Sunday's Toronto first round pits Cristina Bucsa against Moyuka Uchijima on hard. Cristina Bucsa has dropped 6 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten. Moyuka Uchijima comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
Cristina Bucsa simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Bucsa should have enough here, though Uchijima has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
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