11 matches are on Monday's card at Montreal, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Benjamin Bonzi against Yannick Hanfmann in the first round. Our calls: Hanfmann over Bonzi, Assche over Droguet, Jacquet over Diallo, Borges over Kovacevic, Kecmanovic over Zheng, Berrettini over Navone, and 5 more.
The boldest call on the card: Kecmanovic over Zheng — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Galarneau
Win probability: 50% Galarneau · Sets: 3 (54%) · most likely score 2-1 (28%)
Monday's Montreal first round pits Alexis Galarneau against Vit Kopriva on hard. Alexis Galarneau comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Vit Kopriva limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Galarneau is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Berrettini
Win probability: 72% Berrettini · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (47%)
Mariano Navone and Matteo Berrettini meet in the first round at Montreal on Monday. Matteo Berrettini has won 7 of the last 10. Mariano Navone has won 5 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Berrettini has been winning 76.1% of first-serve points to Navone's 62.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Navone needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Landaluce
Win probability: 64% Landaluce · Sets: 3 (52%) · most likely score 2-1 (34%)
Monday's Montreal first round pits Martin Landaluce against Nicolas Mejia on hard. Martin Landaluce limps in on a 5-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Nicolas Mejia brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Landaluce should have enough here, though Mejia has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Vukic
Win probability: 57% Vukic · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Aleksandar Vukic goes up against Daniel Altmaier in the Montreal first round. Aleksandar Vukic comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Daniel Altmaier comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Vukic gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Assche
Win probability: 51% Assche · Sets: 3 (50%) · most likely score 2-1 (26%)
Luca Van Assche and Titouan Droguet meet in the first round at Montreal on Monday. Luca Van Assche brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Titouan Droguet has won 7 of the last 10.
Luca Van Assche has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Titouan Droguet. On hard specifically it reads 1-0 Assche — worth more than the overall number this week.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Assche fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Cilic
Win probability: 66% Cilic · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)
Marin Cilic and Sho Shimabukuro meet in the first round at Montreal on Monday. Marin Cilic limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Sho Shimabukuro limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
Cilic's 76.4% behind the first serve (against 70.6% for Shimabukuro) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Cilic.
Pick: Jacquet
Win probability: 55% Jacquet · Sets: 3 (50%) · most likely score 2-1 (28%)
Monday's Montreal first round pits Gabriel Diallo against Kyrian Jacquet on hard. Kyrian Jacquet comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Gabriel Diallo limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Jacquet is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Hanfmann
Win probability: 52% Hanfmann · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (30%)
Benjamin Bonzi and Yannick Hanfmann meet in the first round at Montreal on Monday. Yannick Hanfmann has won 6 of the last 10. Benjamin Bonzi has won 6 of the last 10.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Hanfmann gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: KecmanovicUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Zheng the favorite; our numbers say Kecmanovic.
Win probability: 56% Kecmanovic · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
Monday's Montreal first round pits Michael Zheng against Miomir Kecmanovic on hard. Miomir Kecmanovic has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Michael Zheng has won 6 of the last 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Kecmanovic gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Borges
Win probability: 51% Borges · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (30%)
Monday's Montreal first round pits Aleksandar Kovacevic against Nuno Borges on hard. Nuno Borges has won 6 of the last 10. Aleksandar Kovacevic limps in on a 6-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Borges gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: DuckworthUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Oconnell the favorite; our numbers say Duckworth.
Win probability: 53% Duckworth · Sets: 3 (42%) · most likely score 2-0 (30%)
Monday's Montreal first round pits Christopher Oconnell against James Duckworth on hard. James Duckworth is 5-5 across recent matches. Christopher Oconnell brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 5-5 across the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Duckworth gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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