✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 60% on Taylor Fritz, who won 7-6 6-4.
Pick: Fritz
Win probability: 60% Fritz · Sets: 3 (47%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
The Washington title is on the line on Monday, when Rafael Jodar meets Taylor Fritz. Taylor Fritz is rolling — 3 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Rafael Jodar has won 3 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.
Fritz's 74.6% behind the first serve (against 69.2% for Jodar) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Jodar arrives with very little recovery time; Fritz comes in off a compressed schedule. Fritz should have enough here, though Jodar has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Jessica Pegula at 68% lost to Alexandra Eala (4-6 6-4 6-0).
Pick: Pegula
Win probability: 68% Pegula · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (44%)
The Washington title is on the line on Monday, when Alexandra Eala meets Jessica Pegula. Jessica Pegula brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Alexandra Eala is rolling — 4 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.
The serve is where this match separates: Pegula has been winning 63.7% of first-serve points to Eala's 60.3%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Eala comes in off a compressed schedule; Pegula comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Pegula.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Yannick Hanfmann at 52% before the match, and Yannick Hanfmann won 6-1 4-6 6-2.
Pick: Hanfmann
Win probability: 52% Hanfmann · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (30%)
Benjamin Bonzi and Yannick Hanfmann meet in the first round at Montreal on Monday. Yannick Hanfmann has won 6 of the last 10. Benjamin Bonzi has won 6 of the last 10.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Hanfmann gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Luca Van Assche at 51% lost to Titouan Droguet (6-4 2-6 7-6).
Pick: Assche
Win probability: 51% Assche · Sets: 3 (50%) · most likely score 2-1 (26%)
Luca Van Assche and Titouan Droguet meet in the first round at Montreal on Monday. Luca Van Assche brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Titouan Droguet has won 7 of the last 10.
Luca Van Assche has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Titouan Droguet. On hard specifically it reads 1-0 Assche — worth more than the overall number this week.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Assche fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 60% on Taylor Townsend, who won 6-4 7-5.
Pick: TownsendUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Valentova; our numbers say Townsend.
Win probability: 60% Townsend · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)
Monday's Toronto first round pits Taylor Townsend against Tereza Valentova on hard. Taylor Townsend is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10). Tereza Valentova comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Townsend.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 55% on Kyrian Jacquet; Gabriel Diallo won 6-7(1) 6-3 6-2.
Pick: Jacquet
Win probability: 55% Jacquet · Sets: 3 (50%) · most likely score 2-1 (28%)
Monday's Montreal first round pits Gabriel Diallo against Kyrian Jacquet on hard. Kyrian Jacquet comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Gabriel Diallo limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Jacquet is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Nuno Borges was our 51% pick, and won 6-7 6-2 6-4.
Pick: Borges
Win probability: 51% Borges · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (30%)
Monday's Montreal first round pits Aleksandar Kovacevic against Nuno Borges on hard. Nuno Borges has won 6 of the last 10. Aleksandar Kovacevic limps in on a 6-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Borges gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 56% on Miomir Kecmanovic, who won 6-4 4-6 7-6.
Pick: KecmanovicUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Zheng the favorite; our numbers say Kecmanovic.
Win probability: 56% Kecmanovic · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
Monday's Montreal first round pits Michael Zheng against Miomir Kecmanovic on hard. Miomir Kecmanovic has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Michael Zheng has won 6 of the last 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Kecmanovic gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Not gradedThis match ended in a retirement, advancing Talia Gibson. It is excluded from our graded record — no pick is counted as right or wrong.
Pick: Cocciaretto
Win probability: 52% Cocciaretto · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
Elisabetta Cocciaretto and Talia Gibson meet in the first round at Toronto on Monday. Elisabetta Cocciaretto comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Talia Gibson is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (3 of the last 10).
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Cocciaretto gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Matteo Berrettini at 72%, but Mariano Navone won 6-3 6-7 6-3.
Pick: Berrettini
Win probability: 72% Berrettini · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (47%)
Mariano Navone and Matteo Berrettini meet in the first round at Montreal on Monday. Matteo Berrettini has won 7 of the last 10. Mariano Navone has won 5 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Berrettini has been winning 76.1% of first-serve points to Navone's 62.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Navone needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 51% on Janice Tjen; Liudmila Samsonova won 7-6 7-5.
Pick: TjenUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Samsonova; our numbers say Tjen.
Win probability: 51% Tjen · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (30%)
Monday's Toronto first round pits Janice Tjen against Liudmila Samsonova on hard. Janice Tjen comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Liudmila Samsonova comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Tjen gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Bianca Andreescu at 52% lost to Nikola Bartunkova (7-5 6-4).
Pick: AndreescuUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Bartunkova; our numbers say Andreescu.
Win probability: 52% Andreescu · Sets: 3 (45%) · most likely score 2-0 (28%)
Monday's Toronto first round pits Bianca Andreescu against Nikola Bartunkova on hard. Bianca Andreescu is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10). Nikola Bartunkova has won 5 of the last 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Andreescu is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had James Duckworth at 53% before the match, and James Duckworth won 6-3 6-1.
Pick: DuckworthUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Oconnell the favorite; our numbers say Duckworth.
Win probability: 53% Duckworth · Sets: 3 (42%) · most likely score 2-0 (30%)
Monday's Montreal first round pits Christopher Oconnell against James Duckworth on hard. James Duckworth is 5-5 across recent matches. Christopher Oconnell brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 5-5 across the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Duckworth gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 51% on Karolina Pliskova, who won 6-4 6-4.
Pick: Pliskova
Win probability: 51% Pliskova · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Monday's Toronto first round pits Karolina Pliskova against Oleksandra Oliynykova on hard. Karolina Pliskova comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Oleksandra Oliynykova is 6-4 across recent matches.
Pliskova's 68.5% behind the first serve (against 57.5% for Oliynykova) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Pliskova fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Aleksandar Vukic at 57% lost to Daniel Altmaier (6-7 7-6 6-4).
Pick: Vukic
Win probability: 57% Vukic · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Aleksandar Vukic goes up against Daniel Altmaier in the Montreal first round. Aleksandar Vukic comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Daniel Altmaier comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Vukic gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Alexis Galarneau at 50% lost to Vit Kopriva (6-4 6-4).
Pick: Galarneau
Win probability: 50% Galarneau · Sets: 3 (54%) · most likely score 2-1 (28%)
Monday's Montreal first round pits Alexis Galarneau against Vit Kopriva on hard. Alexis Galarneau comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Vit Kopriva limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Galarneau is exactly that — a lean.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Yulia Putintseva at 59%, but Shuai Zhang won 6-4 6-1.
Pick: Putintseva
Win probability: 59% Putintseva · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)
Monday's Toronto first round pits Shuai Zhang against Yulia Putintseva on hard. Yulia Putintseva is 6-4 across recent matches. Shuai Zhang comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Putintseva gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Not gradedThis match ended in a retirement, advancing Panna Udvardy. It is excluded from our graded record — no pick is counted as right or wrong.
Pick: UdvardyUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Lys; our numbers say Udvardy.
Win probability: 50% Udvardy · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (30%)
Eva Lys and Panna Udvardy meet in the first round at Toronto on Monday. Panna Udvardy has won 4 of the last 10. Eva Lys is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (4 of the last 10).
Hold strength tells the story — 62.3% versus 58.2% on first-serve points in Udvardy's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Udvardy is exactly that — a lean.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 51% on Rebecca Marino; Zeynep Sonmez won 7-5 6-4.
Pick: MarinoUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Sonmez a heavy favorite; our numbers say Marino.
Win probability: 51% Marino · Sets: 2 (58%) · most likely score 2-0 (29%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Rebecca Marino goes up against Zeynep Sonmez in the Toronto first round. Rebecca Marino has won 5 of the last 10. Zeynep Sonmez limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 69.6% versus 60.3% on first-serve points in Marino's favor. Little separates them; Marino gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Maya Joint was our 55% pick, and won 4-6 6-1 6-3.
Pick: Joint
Win probability: 55% Joint · Sets: 2 (58%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
Monday's Toronto first round pits Maya Joint against Yuliia Starodubtseva on hard. Maya Joint has won 3 of the last 10. Yuliia Starodubtseva is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (4 of the last 10).
Maya Joint simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Joint is exactly that — a lean.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 55% on Anhelina Kalinina; Anna Bondar won 6-4 7-5.
Pick: Kalinina
Win probability: 55% Kalinina · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (34%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Anhelina Kalinina goes up against Anna Bondar in the Toronto first round. Anhelina Kalinina has won 5 of the last 10. Anna Bondar is 5-5 across recent matches.
Anhelina Kalinina has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 2 against Anna Bondar.
Anhelina Kalinina is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Kalinina around 55%. Little separates them; Kalinina gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Not gradedThis match ended in a retirement, advancing Alina Korneeva. It is excluded from our graded record — no pick is counted as right or wrong.
Pick: KudermetovaUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Korneeva; our numbers say Kudermetova.
Win probability: 56% Kudermetova · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Alina Korneeva goes up against Polina Kudermetova in the Toronto first round. Polina Kudermetova is 5-5 across recent matches. Alina Korneeva has dropped 3 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
Polina Kudermetova has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Alina Korneeva. On hard specifically it reads 1-0 Kudermetova — worth more than the overall number this week.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Kudermetova is exactly that — a lean.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 53% on Anna Blinkova; Rebecca Sramkova won 6-3 6-3.
Pick: Blinkova
Win probability: 53% Blinkova · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Anna Blinkova goes up against Rebecca Sramkova in the Toronto first round. Anna Blinkova is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10). Rebecca Sramkova is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (5 of the last 10).
Anna Blinkova is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Blinkova around 53%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Blinkova is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 66% on Marin Cilic, who won 7-6 6-1.
Pick: Cilic
Win probability: 66% Cilic · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)
Marin Cilic and Sho Shimabukuro meet in the first round at Montreal on Monday. Marin Cilic limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Sho Shimabukuro limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
Cilic's 76.4% behind the first serve (against 70.6% for Shimabukuro) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Cilic.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 60% on Magdalena Frech, who won 7-5 6-3.
Pick: Frech
Win probability: 60% Frech · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)
Leolia Jeanjean and Magdalena Frech meet in the first round at Toronto on Monday. Magdalena Frech comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Leolia Jeanjean comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Magdalena Frech is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Frech around 60%. Frech should have enough here, though Jeanjean has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Peyton Stearns at 62%, but Elena Gabriela Ruse won 6-0 7-5.
Pick: Stearns
Win probability: 62% Stearns · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)
Monday's Toronto first round pits Elena Gabriela Ruse against Peyton Stearns on hard. Peyton Stearns is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10). Elena Gabriela Ruse has dropped 3 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Stearns — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Renata Zarazua at 51% before the match, and Renata Zarazua won 6-4 0-6 6-1.
Pick: Zarazua
Win probability: 51% Zarazua · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (29%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Renata Zarazua goes up against Tamara Korpatsch in the Toronto first round. Renata Zarazua limps in on a 6-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10. Tamara Korpatsch is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Zarazua fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Lois Boisson at 56% lost to Antonia Ruzic (4-6 6-1 6-3).
Pick: Boisson
Win probability: 56% Boisson · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
Monday's Toronto first round pits Antonia Ruzic against Lois Boisson on hard. Lois Boisson limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10. Antonia Ruzic is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10).
Boisson's 68.2% behind the first serve (against 61.3% for Ruzic) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Boisson gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Alycia Parks was our 63% pick, and won 6-4 6-4.
Pick: Parks
Win probability: 63% Parks · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)
Monday's Toronto first round pits Alycia Parks against Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva on hard. Alycia Parks is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10). Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva limps in on a 5-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
Parks's 70.6% behind the first serve (against 59.5% for Kasintseva) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Parks.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Diane Parry at 66% lost to Kayla Day (3-6 6-3 7-5).
Pick: ParryUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Day the favorite; our numbers say Parry.
Win probability: 66% Parry · Sets: 2 (67%) · most likely score 2-0 (45%)
Diane Parry and Kayla Day meet in the first round at Toronto on Monday. Diane Parry has dropped 2 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten. Kayla Day limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
Diane Parry is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Parry around 66%. Parry should have enough here, though Day has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Martin Landaluce at 64% lost to Nicolas Mejia (4-6 6-4 6-3).
Pick: Landaluce
Win probability: 64% Landaluce · Sets: 3 (52%) · most likely score 2-1 (34%)
Monday's Montreal first round pits Martin Landaluce against Nicolas Mejia on hard. Martin Landaluce limps in on a 5-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Nicolas Mejia brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Landaluce should have enough here, though Mejia has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 85% on Magda Linette, who won 4-6 6-1 6-4.
Pick: Linette
Win probability: 85% Linette · Sets: 2 (73%) · most likely score 2-0 (64%)
Monday's Toronto first round pits Carol Zhao against Magda Linette on hard. Magda Linette has dropped 3 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Carol Zhao is searching for form, having lost 6 in a row (3 of the last 10).
The serve is where this match separates: Linette has been winning 63.3% of first-serve points to Zhao's 59.6%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. If Linette plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.