5 matches are on Sunday's card at Montreal, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Ben Shelton against Joao Fonseca in the round of 16. Our calls: Fonseca over Shelton, Fils over Norrie, Griekspoor over Aguilar, Tien over Tirante, Mensik over Zandschulp.
Pick: Tien
Win probability: 62% Tien · Market: -210 · Sets: 3 (49%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Learner Tien goes up against Thiago Agustin Tirante in the Montreal round of 16. Learner Tien has won 6 of the last 10. Thiago Agustin Tirante brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Tien — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Griekspoor
Win probability: 54% Griekspoor · Market: -116 · Sets: 3 (49%) · most likely score 2-0 (27%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Daniel Merida Aguilar goes up against Tallon Griekspoor in the Montreal round of 16. Tallon Griekspoor is rolling — 3 straight wins, 4 of 10 in recent play. Daniel Merida Aguilar has won 3 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.
Hold strength tells the story — 73.2% versus 63.9% on first-serve points in Griekspoor's favor. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Griekspoor fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Fonseca
Win probability: 51% Fonseca · Market: +113 · Sets: 3 (48%) · most likely score 2-0 (26%)
Ben Shelton and Joao Fonseca meet in the round of 16 at Montreal on Sunday. Joao Fonseca is 7-3 across recent matches. Ben Shelton has won 7 of the last 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Fonseca fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Mensik
Win probability: 63% Mensik · Market: -231 · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)
Sunday's Montreal round of 16 pits Botic Van De Zandschulp against Jakub Mensik on hard. Jakub Mensik comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Botic Van De Zandschulp is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.
Mensik's 76.6% behind the first serve (against 72% for Zandschulp) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Mensik.
Pick: Fils
Win probability: 64% Fils · Market: -219 · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (43%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Arthur Fils goes up against Cameron Norrie in the Montreal round of 16. Arthur Fils comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Cameron Norrie has won 3 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall.
Hold strength tells the story — 74.2% versus 68.4% on first-serve points in Fils's favor. Fils should have enough here, though Norrie has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
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