Toronto & Montreal predictions, August 9, 2026: Shelton vs. Fonseca, Anisimova vs. Svitolina

Ben Shelton and Joao Fonseca meet in the round of 16 at Montreal on Sunday. Joao Fonseca is 7-3 across recent matches. Ben Shelton has won 7 of the last 10.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Fonseca fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Amanda Anisimova and Elina Svitolina meet in the round of 16 at Toronto on Sunday. Amanda Anisimova comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Elina Svitolina brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Anisimova is exactly that — a lean.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Arthur Fils goes up against Cameron Norrie in the Montreal round of 16. Arthur Fils comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Cameron Norrie has won 3 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall.

Hold strength tells the story — 74.2% versus 68.4% on first-serve points in Fils's favor. Fils should have enough here, though Norrie has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Daniel Merida Aguilar goes up against Tallon Griekspoor in the Montreal round of 16. Tallon Griekspoor is rolling — 3 straight wins, 4 of 10 in recent play. Daniel Merida Aguilar has won 3 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.

Hold strength tells the story — 73.2% versus 63.9% on first-serve points in Griekspoor's favor. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Griekspoor fractionally more likely to land the big points.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Learner Tien goes up against Thiago Agustin Tirante in the Montreal round of 16. Learner Tien has won 6 of the last 10. Thiago Agustin Tirante brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Tien — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Sunday's Montreal round of 16 pits Botic Van De Zandschulp against Jakub Mensik on hard. Jakub Mensik comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Botic Van De Zandschulp is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.

Mensik's 76.6% behind the first serve (against 72% for Zandschulp) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Mensik.

Sunday's Toronto round of 16 pits Elena Rybakina against Liudmila Samsonova on hard. Elena Rybakina comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Liudmila Samsonova brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten.

Elena Rybakina is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Rybakina around 81%. Samsonova needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.

Sunday's Toronto round of 16 pits Leylah Fernandez against Naomi Osaka on hard. Naomi Osaka is 8-2 across recent matches. Leylah Fernandez comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

Osaka's 71.1% behind the first serve (against 64.8% for Fernandez) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Osaka should have enough here, though Fernandez has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Alina Korneeva and Coco Gauff meet in the round of 16 at Toronto on Sunday. Coco Gauff has won 7 of the last 10. Alina Korneeva comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Korneeva needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.