3 matches are on Monday's card at Hamburg, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Chun Hsin Tseng against Vitaliy Sachko in the round of 32. Our calls: Tseng over Sachko, Brancaccio over Jianu, Gurri over Ribeiro.
Pick: Gurri
Win probability: 70% Gurri · Market: -348 · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (46%)
Eduardo Ribeiro and Max Alcala Gurri meet in the round of 32 at Hamburg on Monday. Max Alcala Gurri is 6-4 across recent matches. Eduardo Ribeiro limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
Max Alcala Gurri simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Gurri should have enough here, though Ribeiro has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Tseng
Win probability: 54% Tseng · Market: -120 · Sets: 3 (49%) · most likely score 2-0 (27%)
Chun Hsin Tseng and Vitaliy Sachko meet in the round of 32 at Hamburg on Monday. Chun Hsin Tseng is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10). Vitaliy Sachko has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Tseng gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Brancaccio
Win probability: 55% Brancaccio · Market: -141 · Sets: 3 (48%) · most likely score 2-0 (28%)
Filip Cristian Jianu and Raul Brancaccio meet in the round of 32 at Hamburg on Monday. Raul Brancaccio has won 3 of the last 10. Filip Cristian Jianu limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Brancaccio has been winning 67.1% of first-serve points to Jianu's 63.5%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Brancaccio fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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