3 matches are on Friday's card at Todi, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: F. A. Gomez against Maxim Mrva in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Gomez over Mrva, Neumayer over Barrena, Passaro over Kicker.
Pick: Gomez
Win probability: 62% Gomez · Market: -151 · Sets: 3 (49%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when F. A. Gomez goes up against Maxim Mrva in the Todi quarterfinal. F. A. Gomez has won 6 of the last 10. Maxim Mrva comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Gomez's 70.1% behind the first serve (against 64% for Mrva) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Gomez should have enough here, though Mrva has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Neumayer
Win probability: 65% Neumayer · Market: -210 · Sets: 3 (48%) · most likely score 2-0 (34%)
Alex Barrena and Lukas Neumayer meet in the quarterfinal at Todi on Friday. Lukas Neumayer comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Alex Barrena has won 5 of the last 10.
Lukas Neumayer simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Barrena comes in off a compressed schedule; Neumayer comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Neumayer — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Passaro
Win probability: 62% Passaro · Market: -262 · Sets: 3 (45%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
Friday's Todi quarterfinal pits Francesco Passaro against Nicolas Kicker on clay. Francesco Passaro comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Nicolas Kicker comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Passaro's 70.7% behind the first serve (against 63.8% for Kicker) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Passaro should have enough here, though Kicker has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
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