6 matches are on Tuesday's card at Prague, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Chun Hsin Tseng against Hynek Barton in the round of 32. Our calls: Barton over Tseng, Mrva over Fatic, Soto over Molleker, Krumich over Cosano, Martin over Jianu, Gombos over Bailly.
The boldest call on the card: Martin over Jianu — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: SotoUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Molleker; our numbers say Soto.
Win probability: 52% Soto · Market: +180 · Sets: 3 (51%) · most likely score 2-1 (27%)
Tuesday's Prague round of 32 pits Matias Soto against Rudolf Molleker on clay. Matias Soto comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Rudolf Molleker is 5-5 across recent matches.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Soto gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Barton
Win probability: 53% Barton · Market: -145 · Sets: 3 (51%) · most likely score 2-1 (27%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Chun Hsin Tseng goes up against Hynek Barton in the Prague round of 32. Hynek Barton is 5-5 across recent matches. Chun Hsin Tseng limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 70.8% versus 66.8% on first-serve points in Barton's favor. Little separates them; Barton gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Gombos
Win probability: 57% Gombos · Sets: 3 (45%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Gilles Arnaud Bailly goes up against Norbert Gombos in the Prague round of 32. Norbert Gombos has won 4 of the last 10. Gilles Arnaud Bailly is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10).
The serve is where this match separates: Gombos has been winning 69.3% of first-serve points to Bailly's 65.7%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Gombos fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: MartinUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Jianu the favorite; our numbers say Martin.
Win probability: 54% Martin · Market: +132 · Sets: 3 (53%) · most likely score 2-1 (29%)
Andres Martin and Filip Cristian Jianu meet in the round of 32 at Prague on Tuesday. Andres Martin has won 4 of the last 10. Filip Cristian Jianu is searching for form, having lost 5 in a row (2 of the last 10).
Hold strength tells the story — 68.2% versus 63.7% on first-serve points in Martin's favor. Little separates them; Martin gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Krumich
Win probability: 54% Krumich · Market: -178 · Sets: 3 (49%) · most likely score 2-1 (27%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Javier Barranco Cosano goes up against Martin Krumich in the Prague round of 32. Martin Krumich comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Javier Barranco Cosano is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (3 of the last 10).
Hold strength tells the story — 69.2% versus 64.1% on first-serve points in Krumich's favor. Little separates them; Krumich gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Mrva
Win probability: 52% Mrva · Market: -153 · Sets: 3 (49%) · most likely score 2-0 (26%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Maxim Mrva goes up against Nerman Fatic in the Prague round of 32. Maxim Mrva brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten. Nerman Fatic is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Mrva gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.