✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Amanda Anisimova at 52% before the match, and Amanda Anisimova won 4-6 6-4 6-2.
Pick: Anisimova
Win probability: 52% Anisimova · Market: -114 · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Tuesday's Cincinnati round of 32 pits Alexandra Eala against Amanda Anisimova on hard. Amanda Anisimova is 6-4 across recent matches. Alexandra Eala has won 8 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Anisimova is exactly that — a lean.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 54% on Daniil Medvedev; Brandon Nakashima won 6-7 7-6 6-1.
Pick: Medvedev
Win probability: 54% Medvedev · Market: -121 · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Brandon Nakashima goes up against Daniil Medvedev in the Cincinnati round of 32. Daniil Medvedev is 6-4 across recent matches. Brandon Nakashima comes in at 8 wins from the last ten.
Daniil Medvedev simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Medvedev gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Arthur Fils was our 58% pick, and won 6-1 6-7 6-3.
Pick: Fils
Win probability: 58% Fils · Market: -142 · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)
Tuesday's Cincinnati round of 32 pits Arthur Fils against Jiri Lehecka on hard. Arthur Fils is 6-4 across recent matches. Jiri Lehecka has won 6 of the last 10.
Arthur Fils simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Fils gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 53% on Ekaterina Alexandrova; Sara Bejlek won 4-6 6-1 6-2.
Pick: Alexandrova
Win probability: 53% Alexandrova · Market: +111 · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
Ekaterina Alexandrova and Sara Bejlek meet in the round of 32 at Cincinnati on Tuesday. Ekaterina Alexandrova comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Sara Bejlek comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Alexandrova has been winning 66.9% of first-serve points to Bejlek's 57.7%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Alexandrova fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Taylor Fritz was our 64% pick, and won 6-3 6-4.
Pick: Fritz
Win probability: 64% Fritz · Market: -375 · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)
Tuesday's Cincinnati round of 32 pits Daniel Merida Aguilar against Taylor Fritz on hard. Taylor Fritz is 8-2 across recent matches. Daniel Merida Aguilar is 8-2 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 74.6% versus 64.3% on first-serve points in Fritz's favor. Fritz should have enough here, though Aguilar has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Andrey Rublev at 56%, but Nuno Borges won 6-3 6-4.
Pick: Rublev
Win probability: 56% Rublev · Market: -161 · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Andrey Rublev goes up against Nuno Borges in the Cincinnati round of 32. Andrey Rublev is 6-4 across recent matches. Nuno Borges has won 7 of the last 10.
The ledger favors Andrey Rublev, 5-0 across their 5 meetings with Nuno Borges. On hard specifically it reads 3-0 Rublev — worth more than the overall number this week.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Rublev gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Lorenzo Musetti was our 66% pick, and won 6-1 6-3.
Pick: Musetti
Win probability: 66% Musetti · Market: -177 · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (41%)
Lorenzo Musetti and Michael Zheng meet in the round of 32 at Cincinnati on Tuesday. Lorenzo Musetti is 7-3 across recent matches. Michael Zheng has won 6 of the last 10.
Lorenzo Musetti is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Musetti around 66%. The edge belongs to Musetti — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Felix Auger Aliassime at 69% before the match, and Felix Auger Aliassime won 7-5 6-1.
Pick: Aliassime
Win probability: 69% Aliassime · Market: -444 · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (44%)
Tuesday's Cincinnati round of 32 pits Felix Auger Aliassime against Juan Manuel Cerundolo on hard. Felix Auger Aliassime is 7-3 across recent matches. Juan Manuel Cerundolo comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Aliassime has been winning 75.5% of first-serve points to Cerundolo's 67.6%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Aliassime — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 65% on Madison Keys, who won 6-1 6-3.
Pick: Keys
Win probability: 65% Keys · Market: -295 · Sets: 2 (66%) · most likely score 2-0 (45%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Katerina Siniakova goes up against Madison Keys in the Cincinnati round of 32. Madison Keys comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Katerina Siniakova is 5-5 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Keys has been winning 65.5% of first-serve points to Siniakova's 61.1%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Keys — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Coco Gauff was our 72% pick, and won 6-1 7-6.
Pick: Gauff
Win probability: 72% Gauff · Market: -580 · Sets: 2 (67%) · most likely score 2-0 (51%)
Ann Li and Coco Gauff meet in the round of 32 at Cincinnati on Tuesday. Coco Gauff has won 8 of the last 10. Ann Li comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Coco Gauff simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Gauff — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Not gradedThis match ended in a walkover, advancing Christopher Oconnell. It is excluded from our graded record — no pick is counted as right or wrong.
Pick: Fonseca
Win probability: 76% Fonseca · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (48%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Christopher Oconnell goes up against Joao Fonseca in the Cincinnati round of 32. Joao Fonseca comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Christopher Oconnell comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. If Fonseca plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 72% on Mirra Andreeva, who won 6-1 7-6.
Pick: Andreeva
Win probability: 72% Andreeva · Market: -531 · Sets: 2 (70%) · most likely score 2-0 (53%)
Janice Tjen and Mirra Andreeva meet in the round of 32 at Cincinnati on Tuesday. Mirra Andreeva has won 7 of the last 10. Janice Tjen comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Tjen needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Tommy Paul was our 69% pick, and won 3-6 6-3 6-4.
Pick: Paul
Win probability: 69% Paul · Market: -344 · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (43%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Daniel Vallejo goes up against Tommy Paul in the Cincinnati round of 32. Tommy Paul comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Daniel Vallejo has won 6 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Paul has been winning 69.4% of first-serve points to Vallejo's 64.9%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Paul should have enough here, though Vallejo has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Adam Walton at 60% lost to Jaime Faria (4-6 6-4 7-6).
Pick: WaltonUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Faria the favorite; our numbers say Walton.
Win probability: 60% Walton · Market: +132 · Sets: 3 (48%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
Tuesday's Cincinnati round of 32 pits Adam Walton against Jaime Faria on hard. Adam Walton comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Jaime Faria comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Walton fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 82% on Marta Kostyuk, who won 7-5 7-5.
Pick: Kostyuk
Win probability: 82% Kostyuk · Market: -655 · Sets: 2 (71%) · most likely score 2-0 (60%)
Marta Kostyuk and Sloane Stephens meet in the round of 32 at Cincinnati on Tuesday. Marta Kostyuk is 8-2 across recent matches. Sloane Stephens has won 4 of the last 10.
Marta Kostyuk is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Kostyuk around 82%. Anything other than a Kostyuk win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.