7 matches are on Wednesday's card at Cincinnati, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Marta Kostyuk against Mirra Andreeva in the round of 16. Our calls: Kostyuk over Andreeva, Noskova over Anisimova, Pegula over Cirstea, Rybakina over Shnaider, Gauff over Bouzkova, Jovic over Bouzkova, and 1 more.
Pick: Jovic
Win probability: 54% Jovic · Market: -163 · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (34%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Iva Jovic goes up against Marie Bouzkova in the Cincinnati round of 32. Iva Jovic comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Marie Bouzkova is 7-3 across recent matches.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Jovic is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Swiatek
Win probability: 79% Swiatek · Market: -1643 · Sets: 2 (72%) · most likely score 2-0 (59%)
Wednesday's Cincinnati round of 16 pits Diane Parry against Iga Swiatek on hard. Iga Swiatek is rolling — 8 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Diane Parry is rolling — 3 straight wins, 5 of 10 in recent play.
Iga Swiatek simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Swiatek win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Rybakina
Win probability: 74% Rybakina · Market: -227 · Sets: 2 (66%) · most likely score 2-0 (51%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Diana Shnaider goes up against Elena Rybakina in the Cincinnati round of 16. Elena Rybakina is rolling — 3 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Diana Shnaider has won 7 of the last 10.
Rybakina's 70% behind the first serve (against 62.7% for Shnaider) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. If Rybakina plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Pegula
Win probability: 65% Pegula · Market: -271 · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (45%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Jessica Pegula goes up against Sorana Cirstea in the Cincinnati round of 16. Jessica Pegula comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Sorana Cirstea comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Jessica Pegula simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Pegula — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Noskova
Win probability: 52% Noskova · Market: -107 · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
Amanda Anisimova and Linda Noskova meet in the round of 16 at Cincinnati on Wednesday. Linda Noskova has won 8 of the last 10. Amanda Anisimova comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 69.3% versus 61.4% on first-serve points in Noskova's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Noskova is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Gauff
Win probability: 72% Gauff · Market: -310 · Sets: 2 (68%) · most likely score 2-0 (51%)
Wednesday's Cincinnati round of 16 pits Coco Gauff against Marie Bouzkova on hard. Coco Gauff comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Marie Bouzkova has won 7 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 65.8% versus 61.9% on first-serve points in Gauff's favor. Anything other than a Gauff win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Kostyuk
Win probability: 50% Kostyuk · Market: +122 · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
Marta Kostyuk and Mirra Andreeva meet in the round of 16 at Cincinnati on Wednesday. Marta Kostyuk has won 8 of the last 10. Mirra Andreeva is 7-3 across recent matches.
The ledger favors Marta Kostyuk, 2-1 across their 3 meetings with Mirra Andreeva. On hard specifically it reads 1-0 Kostyuk — worth more than the overall number this week.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Kostyuk is exactly that — a lean.
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