5 matches are on Sunday's card at Winston-Salem, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard against Jenson Brooksby in the round of 64. Our calls: Perricard over Brooksby, Bellucci over Landaluce, Busta over Vallejo, Wu over Comesana, Kecmanovic over Shimabukuro.
The boldest call on the card: Bellucci over Landaluce — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Wu
Win probability: 65% Wu · Market: -176 · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Francisco Comesana goes up against Yibing Wu in the Winston-Salem round of 64. Yibing Wu is 3-7 across recent matches. Francisco Comesana is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).
Yibing Wu simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Wu.
Pick: Kecmanovic
Win probability: 62% Kecmanovic · Market: -209 · Sets: 2 (58%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)
Sunday's Winston-Salem round of 64 pits Miomir Kecmanovic against Sho Shimabukuro on hard. Miomir Kecmanovic is 4-6 across recent matches. Sho Shimabukuro limps in on a 5-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
Miomir Kecmanovic is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Kecmanovic around 62%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Kecmanovic.
Pick: Busta
Win probability: 55% Busta · Market: -117 · Sets: 3 (45%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Sunday's Winston-Salem round of 64 pits Daniel Vallejo against Pablo Carreno Busta on hard. Pablo Carreno Busta has won 4 of the last 10. Daniel Vallejo comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 68.2% versus 64.9% on first-serve points in Busta's favor. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Busta fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: BellucciUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Landaluce the favorite; our numbers say Bellucci.
Win probability: 53% Bellucci · Market: +138 · Sets: 3 (50%) · most likely score 2-0 (28%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Martin Landaluce goes up against Mattia Bellucci in the Winston-Salem round of 64. Mattia Bellucci is 4-6 across recent matches. Martin Landaluce comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Bellucci gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: PerricardUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Brooksby the favorite; our numbers say Perricard.
Win probability: 50% Perricard · Market: +145 · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (29%)
Sunday's Winston-Salem round of 64 pits Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard against Jenson Brooksby on hard. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (3 of the last 10). Jenson Brooksby is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).
Perricard's 78.2% behind the first serve (against 66.9% for Brooksby) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Perricard fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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