Winston-Salem & Cincinnati predictions, August 23, 2026: Gauff vs. Pegula, Fils vs. Tiafoe

It all comes down to Sunday at Cincinnati, where Coco Gauff faces Jessica Pegula for the trophy. Jessica Pegula brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Coco Gauff has won 4 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.

Jessica Pegula leads the head-to-head 5-3, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On hard specifically it reads 4-2 Pegula — worth more than the overall number this week.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Gauff comes in off a compressed schedule; Pegula comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Pegula gets the nod on the finest of margins.

The Cincinnati title is on the line on Sunday, when Arthur Fils meets Frances Tiafoe. Arthur Fils is rolling — 5 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Frances Tiafoe brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Tiafoe comes in off a compressed schedule. Fils should have enough here, though Tiafoe has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Coco Gauff goes up against Sara Bejlek in the Cincinnati semifinal. Coco Gauff has won 3 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall. Sara Bejlek has won 5 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.

The serve is where this match separates: Gauff has been winning 65.8% of first-serve points to Bejlek's 58%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Gauff should have enough here, though Bejlek has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Sunday's Winston-Salem round of 64 pits Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard against Jenson Brooksby on hard. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (3 of the last 10). Jenson Brooksby is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).

Perricard's 78.2% behind the first serve (against 66.9% for Brooksby) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Perricard fractionally more likely to land the big points.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Martin Landaluce goes up against Mattia Bellucci in the Winston-Salem round of 64. Mattia Bellucci is 4-6 across recent matches. Martin Landaluce comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Bellucci gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Sunday's Winston-Salem round of 64 pits Daniel Vallejo against Pablo Carreno Busta on hard. Pablo Carreno Busta has won 4 of the last 10. Daniel Vallejo comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

Hold strength tells the story — 68.2% versus 64.9% on first-serve points in Busta's favor. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Busta fractionally more likely to land the big points.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Francisco Comesana goes up against Yibing Wu in the Winston-Salem round of 64. Yibing Wu is 3-7 across recent matches. Francisco Comesana is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).

Yibing Wu simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Wu.

Sunday's Winston-Salem round of 64 pits Miomir Kecmanovic against Sho Shimabukuro on hard. Miomir Kecmanovic is 4-6 across recent matches. Sho Shimabukuro limps in on a 5-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.

Miomir Kecmanovic is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Kecmanovic around 62%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Kecmanovic.