6 matches are on Monday's card at Monterrey, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Ann Li against Camila Osorio in the round of 32. Our calls: Bartunkova over Ruzic, Parks over Marcinko, Tagger over Starodubtseva, Oliynykova over Sherif.
Pick: Tagger
Win probability: 68% Tagger · Market: -187 · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (46%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Lilli Tagger goes up against Yuliia Starodubtseva in the Monterrey round of 32. Lilli Tagger has won 6 of the last 10. Yuliia Starodubtseva limps in on a 5-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 66.4% versus 58.2% on first-serve points in Tagger's favor. Tagger should have enough here, though Starodubtseva has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Bartunkova
Win probability: 60% Bartunkova · Market: -221 · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Antonia Ruzic goes up against Nikola Bartunkova in the Monterrey round of 32. Nikola Bartunkova has won 6 of the last 10. Antonia Ruzic limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.
Bartunkova's 67.9% behind the first serve (against 61.3% for Ruzic) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Bartunkova.
Pick: Oliynykova
Win probability: 59% Oliynykova · Market: +102 · Sets: 3 (46%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Mayar Sherif goes up against Oleksandra Oliynykova in the Monterrey round of 32. Oleksandra Oliynykova has won 6 of the last 10. Mayar Sherif is rolling — 10 straight wins, 10 of 10 in recent play.
Oleksandra Oliynykova has had the better of this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 against Mayar Sherif. On hard specifically it reads 2-0 Oliynykova — worth more than the overall number this week.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Oliynykova fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Parks
Win probability: 55% Parks · Market: +112 · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Monday's Monterrey round of 32 pits Alycia Parks against Petra Marcinko on hard. Alycia Parks is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10). Petra Marcinko limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Parks has been winning 70.3% of first-serve points to Marcinko's 63.2%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Parks fractionally more likely to land the big points.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Monday's Monterrey round of 32 pits Dayana Yastremska against Janice Tjen on hard. Janice Tjen has won 3 of the last 10. Dayana Yastremska limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Ann Li goes up against Camila Osorio in the Monterrey round of 32. Camila Osorio is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (6 of the last 10). Ann Li is 4-6 across recent matches.
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