Winston-Salem & Monterrey predictions, August 24, 2026: Li vs Osorio, Bonzi vs Majchrzak
By The Maiden Desk · August 24, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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15 matches are on Monday's card at Winston-Salem and Monterrey, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Ann Li against Camila Osorio in the round of 32. Our calls: Osorio over Li, Bonzi over Majchrzak, Tsitsipas over Brooksby, Safiullin over Fucsovics, Giron over Royer, Bartunkova over Ruzic, and 9 more.
The boldest call on the card: Bonzi over Majchrzak — the market disagrees with us there.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Camila Osorio at 50% lost to Ann Li (6-1 6-2).
Pick: Osorio
Win probability: 50% Osorio · Market: +102 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Ann Li goes up against Camila Osorio in the Monterrey round of 32. Camila Osorio is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (6 of the last 10). Ann Li is 4-6 across recent matches.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Osorio fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Benjamin Bonzi was our 50% pick, and won 6-4 7-6.
Pick: BonziUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Majchrzak; our numbers say Bonzi.
Win probability: 50% Bonzi · Market: +181 · We call it in 3 sets (50%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (25%)
Monday's Winston-Salem round of 64 pits Benjamin Bonzi against Kamil Majchrzak on hard. Benjamin Bonzi has dropped 3 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Kamil Majchrzak is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (5 of the last 10).
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Bonzi gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Stefanos Tsitsipas at 61% before the match, and Stefanos Tsitsipas won 6-4 7-6.
Pick: Tsitsipas
Win probability: 61% Tsitsipas · Market: -141 · We call it in 2 sets (65%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Jenson Brooksby goes up against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Winston-Salem round of 32. Stefanos Tsitsipas is 7-3 across recent matches. Jenson Brooksby is 6-4 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Tsitsipas has been winning 74.8% of first-serve points to Brooksby's 66.9%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Tsitsipas should have enough here, though Brooksby has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Win probability: 58% Safiullin · Market: -168 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
Marton Fucsovics and Roman Safiullin meet in the round of 64 at Winston-Salem on Monday. Roman Safiullin has won 7 of the last 10. Marton Fucsovics has dropped 2 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Safiullin fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Win probability: 53% Giron · Market: -102 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Marcos Giron goes up against Valentin Royer in the Winston-Salem round of 64. Marcos Giron limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10. Valentin Royer brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten.
Giron's 70.5% behind the first serve (against 26.1% for Royer) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Giron fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Nikola Bartunkova at 60% before the match, and Nikola Bartunkova won 6-4 6-3.
Pick: Bartunkova
Win probability: 60% Bartunkova · Market: -221 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (39%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Antonia Ruzic goes up against Nikola Bartunkova in the Monterrey round of 32. Nikola Bartunkova has won 6 of the last 10. Antonia Ruzic limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.
Bartunkova's 67.9% behind the first serve (against 61.3% for Ruzic) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Bartunkova.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Janice Tjen was our 54% pick, and won 2-6 6-3 7-6.
Pick: Tjen
Win probability: 54% Tjen · Market: -179 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Monday's Monterrey round of 32 pits Dayana Yastremska against Janice Tjen on hard. Janice Tjen has won 3 of the last 10. Dayana Yastremska limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 67.4% versus 62.3% on first-serve points in Tjen's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Tjen is exactly that — a lean.
Win probability: 58% Sonego · Market: -133 · We call it in 2 sets (58%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
Monday's Winston-Salem round of 64 pits Lorenzo Sonego against Vit Kopriva on hard. Lorenzo Sonego has won 5 of the last 10. Vit Kopriva is 3-7 across recent matches.
Sonego's 71.9% behind the first serve (against 66.5% for Kopriva) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Sonego gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 59% on Adam Walton, who won 6-2 6-4.
Pick: Walton
Win probability: 59% Walton · Market: -161 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Monday's Winston-Salem round of 64 pits Adam Walton against Jesper De Jong on hard. Adam Walton has won 5 of the last 10. Jesper De Jong has dropped 3 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Walton fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Martin Damm at 66% before the match, and Martin Damm won 6-4 7-6.
Pick: Damm
Win probability: 66% Damm · Market: -236 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Abedallah Shelbayh goes up against Martin Damm in the Winston-Salem round of 64. Martin Damm is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (3 of the last 10). Abedallah Shelbayh comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Damm has been winning 77.2% of first-serve points to Shelbayh's 66.8%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Damm should have enough here, though Shelbayh has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Rinky Hijikata at 66% before the match, and Rinky Hijikata won 6-4 7-6.
Pick: Hijikata
Win probability: 66% Hijikata · Market: -192 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Darwin Blanch goes up against Rinky Hijikata in the Winston-Salem round of 64. Rinky Hijikata comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Darwin Blanch limps in on a 6-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.
Rinky Hijikata is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Hijikata around 66%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Hijikata.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Roman Safiullin at 68% lost to Hugo Grenier (7-6 4-6 6-3).
Pick: Safiullin
Win probability: 68% Safiullin · Market: -415 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (41%)
Monday's Winston-Salem round of 64 pits Hugo Grenier against Roman Safiullin on hard. Roman Safiullin has won 7 of the last 10. Hugo Grenier comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Roman Safiullin simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Safiullin — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 55% on Alycia Parks, who won 2-6 6-4 6-4.
Pick: Parks
Win probability: 55% Parks · Market: +112 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
Monday's Monterrey round of 32 pits Alycia Parks against Petra Marcinko on hard. Alycia Parks is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10). Petra Marcinko limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Parks has been winning 70.3% of first-serve points to Marcinko's 63.2%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Parks fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 68% on Lilli Tagger; Yuliia Starodubtseva won 6-3 6-4.
Pick: Tagger
Win probability: 68% Tagger · Market: -187 · We call it in 2 sets (65%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (46%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Lilli Tagger goes up against Yuliia Starodubtseva in the Monterrey round of 32. Lilli Tagger has won 6 of the last 10. Yuliia Starodubtseva limps in on a 5-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 66.4% versus 58.2% on first-serve points in Tagger's favor. Tagger should have enough here, though Starodubtseva has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Oleksandra Oliynykova was our 59% pick, and won 6-3 6-4.
Pick: Oliynykova
Win probability: 59% Oliynykova · Market: +102 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Mayar Sherif goes up against Oleksandra Oliynykova in the Monterrey round of 32. Oleksandra Oliynykova has won 6 of the last 10. Mayar Sherif is rolling — 10 straight wins, 10 of 10 in recent play.
Oleksandra Oliynykova has had the better of this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 against Mayar Sherif. On hard specifically it reads 2-0 Oliynykova — worth more than the overall number this week.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Oliynykova fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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