4 matches are on Thursday's card at Monterrey, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Clara Tauson against Ekaterina Alexandrova in the round of 16. Our calls: Alexandrova over Tauson, Li over Parks, Chwalinska over Parks, Bartunkova over Vidmanova.
Pick: Alexandrova
Win probability: 57% Alexandrova · Market: +112 · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Clara Tauson goes up against Ekaterina Alexandrova in the Monterrey round of 16. Ekaterina Alexandrova is 6-4 across recent matches. Clara Tauson is 3-7 across recent matches.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Alexandrova fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Chwalinska
Win probability: 54% Chwalinska · Market: -155 · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
Alycia Parks and Maja Chwalinska meet in the round of 16 at Monterrey on Thursday. Maja Chwalinska has won 6 of the last 10. Alycia Parks is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Chwalinska fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Bartunkova
Win probability: 66% Bartunkova · Market: -170 · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (43%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Darja Vidmanova goes up against Nikola Bartunkova in the Monterrey quarterfinal. Nikola Bartunkova comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Darja Vidmanova is 6-4 across recent matches.
Bartunkova's 68.1% behind the first serve (against 62.9% for Vidmanova) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Bartunkova should have enough here, though Vidmanova has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Li
Win probability: 60% Li · Market: -216 · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Alycia Parks goes up against Ann Li in the Monterrey quarterfinal. Ann Li is 4-6 across recent matches. Alycia Parks comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Parks comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Li is exactly that — a lean.
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