3 matches are on Friday's card at Monterrey, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Clara Tauson against Diane Parry in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Tauson over Parry, Li over Parry, Mertens over Starodubtseva.
Pick: Mertens
Win probability: 71% Mertens · Market: -202 · Sets: 2 (66%) · most likely score 2-0 (49%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Elise Mertens goes up against Yuliia Starodubtseva in the Monterrey quarterfinal. Elise Mertens is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (6 of the last 10). Yuliia Starodubtseva is 4-6 across recent matches.
Mertens's 63.4% behind the first serve (against 58.1% for Starodubtseva) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Mertens should have enough here, though Starodubtseva has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Tauson
Win probability: 50% Tauson · Market: -150 · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (30%)
Clara Tauson and Diane Parry meet in the quarterfinal at Monterrey on Friday. Clara Tauson has won 4 of the last 10. Diane Parry has won 6 of the last 10.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Tauson comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Tauson is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Li
Win probability: 52% Li · Market: -152 · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Friday's Monterrey semifinal pits Ann Li against Diane Parry on hard. Ann Li has won 4 of the last 10. Diane Parry comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Diane Parry has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Ann Li.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Parry comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Li gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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