4 matches are on Tuesday's card at Como, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Martin Krumich against Thiago Seyboth Wild in the round of 32. Our calls: Wild over Krumich, Feldbausch over Soto, Brancaccio over Ajdukovic, Squire over Jianu.
Pick: Brancaccio
Win probability: 53% Brancaccio · Market: -190 · We call it in 3 sets (48%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (27%)
Tuesday's Como round of 32 pits Duje Ajdukovic against Raul Brancaccio on clay. Raul Brancaccio has won 4 of the last 10. Duje Ajdukovic is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (3 of the last 10).
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Brancaccio fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Feldbausch
Win probability: 60% Feldbausch · Market: -345 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Kilian Feldbausch and Matias Soto meet in the round of 32 at Como on Tuesday. Kilian Feldbausch is 6-4 across recent matches. Matias Soto has won 6 of the last 10.
Kilian Feldbausch is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Feldbausch around 60%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Feldbausch is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Wild
Win probability: 57% Wild · Market: -135 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Martin Krumich and Thiago Seyboth Wild meet in the round of 32 at Como on Tuesday. Thiago Seyboth Wild is 7-3 across recent matches. Martin Krumich comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Thiago Seyboth Wild simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Wild is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Squire
Win probability: 54% Squire · Market: -136 · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (27%)
Filip Cristian Jianu and Henri Squire meet in the round of 32 at Como on Tuesday. Henri Squire comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Filip Cristian Jianu is 4-6 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 70.8% versus 64% on first-serve points in Squire's favor. Little separates them; Squire gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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