11 matches are on Tuesday's card at US Open, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Frances Tiafoe against Martin Damm in the first round. Our calls: Tiafoe over Damm, Keys over Korneeva, Moutet over Sweeny.
Pick: Tiafoe
Win probability: 60% Tiafoe · Market: -318 · Sets: 4+ (54%) · most likely score 3-0 (28%)
Frances Tiafoe and Martin Damm meet in the first round at US Open on Tuesday. Frances Tiafoe has won 7 of the last 10. Martin Damm has won 4 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Tiafoe.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Tuesday's US Open first round pits Belinda Bencic against Yulia Putintseva on hard. Belinda Bencic brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Yulia Putintseva has dropped 3 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Tuesday's US Open first round pits Anastasia Zakharova against Naomi Osaka on hard. Naomi Osaka comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Anastasia Zakharova has won 5 of the last 10.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Flavio Cobolli goes up against Francisco Comesana in the US Open first round. Flavio Cobolli has won 6 of the last 10. Francisco Comesana is 6-4 across recent matches.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Tuesday's US Open first round pits Maria Sakkari against Robin Montgomery on hard. Maria Sakkari comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Robin Montgomery has won 6 of the last 10.
Pick: Keys
Win probability: 68% Keys · Market: -234 · Sets: 2 (71%) · most likely score 2-0 (49%)
Tuesday's US Open first round pits Alina Korneeva against Madison Keys on hard. Madison Keys has won 6 of the last 10. Alina Korneeva has won 3 of the last 10.
Madison Keys simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Keys should have enough here, though Korneeva has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Nishesh Basavareddy and Tristan Schoolkate meet in the first round at US Open on Tuesday. Nishesh Basavareddy is 6-4 across recent matches. Tristan Schoolkate limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Mattia Bellucci and Zsombor Piros meet in the first round at US Open on Tuesday. Mattia Bellucci is 4-6 across recent matches. Zsombor Piros is 8-2 across recent matches.
Pick: Moutet
Win probability: 63% Moutet · Market: -278 · Sets: 4+ (56%) · most likely score 3-0 (29%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Corentin Moutet goes up against Dane Sweeny in the US Open first round. Corentin Moutet has won 2 of the last 10. Dane Sweeny has won 4 of the last 10.
Corentin Moutet is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Moutet around 63%. The edge belongs to Moutet — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Tuesday's US Open first round pits Filip Misolic against Francisco Cerundolo on hard. Francisco Cerundolo is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (5 of the last 10). Filip Misolic limps in on a 5-match losing skid, just 1 wins in 10.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the whole board.
Ella Seidel and Yuliia Starodubtseva meet in the first round at US Open on Tuesday. Yuliia Starodubtseva comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Ella Seidel limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.
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