11 matches are on Tuesday's card at Seville, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Carlos Taberner against Henrique Rocha in the round of 32. Our calls: Rocha over Taberner, Ritschard over Baena, Landaluce over Lajovic, Ruiz over Coppejans, Ofner over Gill, Munar over Batalla, and 5 more.
Pick: Brancaccio
Win probability: 53% Brancaccio · Sets: 3 (48%) · most likely score 2-0 (27%)
Inaki Montes-De La Torre and Raul Brancaccio meet in the round of 32 at Seville on Tuesday. Raul Brancaccio is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10). Inaki Montes-De La Torre is 5-5 across recent matches.
Raul Brancaccio simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Brancaccio gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Rocha
Win probability: 51% Rocha · Market: -181 · Sets: 3 (52%) · most likely score 2-1 (27%)
Tuesday's Seville round of 32 pits Carlos Taberner against Henrique Rocha on clay. Henrique Rocha comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Carlos Taberner is 4-6 across recent matches.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Rocha gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Ruiz
Win probability: 58% Ruiz · Market: -254 · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (34%)
Tuesday's Seville round of 32 pits Kimmer Coppejans against Pablo Llamas Ruiz on clay. Pablo Llamas Ruiz comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Kimmer Coppejans is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).
Pablo Llamas Ruiz is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Ruiz around 58%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Ruiz fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Trungelliti
Win probability: 73% Trungelliti · Market: -361 · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (44%)
Marco Trungelliti and T. Pereira meet in the round of 32 at Seville on Tuesday. Marco Trungelliti comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. T. Pereira is 5-5 across recent matches.
Marco Trungelliti is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Trungelliti around 73%. Anything other than a Trungelliti win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Izquierdo
Win probability: 60% Izquierdo · Market: -328 · Sets: 3 (51%) · most likely score 2-0 (30%)
Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo and Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna meet in the round of 32 at Seville on Tuesday. Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10). Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Izquierdo gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Munar
Win probability: 62% Munar · Market: -250 · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)
Jaume Munar and Oriol Roca Batalla meet in the round of 32 at Seville on Tuesday. Jaume Munar is 4-6 across recent matches. Oriol Roca Batalla comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
Jaume Munar simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Munar should have enough here, though Batalla has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Bueno
Win probability: 59% Bueno · Market: -130 · Sets: 3 (45%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
Tuesday's Seville round of 32 pits Carlos Sanchez Jover against Gonzalo Bueno on clay. Gonzalo Bueno comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Carlos Sanchez Jover comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Gonzalo Bueno simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Bueno gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Ritschard
Win probability: 51% Ritschard · Market: +104 · Sets: 3 (46%) · most likely score 2-0 (27%)
Alexander Ritschard and Roberto Carballes Baena meet in the round of 32 at Seville on Tuesday. Alexander Ritschard has won 5 of the last 10. Roberto Carballes Baena comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Ritschard fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Ofner
Win probability: 61% Ofner · Market: -105 · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (36%)
Tuesday's Seville round of 32 pits Felix Gill against Sebastian Ofner on clay. Sebastian Ofner is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (4 of the last 10). Felix Gill is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10).
Hold strength tells the story — 73.2% versus 67.9% on first-serve points in Ofner's favor. Ofner should have enough here, though Gill has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Landaluce
Win probability: 53% Landaluce · Market: -128 · Sets: 3 (50%) · most likely score 2-1 (27%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Dusan Lajovic goes up against Martin Landaluce in the Seville round of 32. Martin Landaluce is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (2 of the last 10). Dusan Lajovic is 5-5 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Landaluce has been winning 70.3% of first-serve points to Lajovic's 67%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Landaluce fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Gurri
Win probability: 58% Gurri · Market: -269 · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Gerard Campana Lee goes up against Max Alcala Gurri in the Seville round of 32. Max Alcala Gurri limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Gerard Campana Lee has dropped 2 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten.
Max Alcala Gurri is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Gurri around 58%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Gurri fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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