4 matches are on Wednesday's card at Seville, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alexander Ritschard against Sebastian Ofner in the round of 16. Our calls: Ofner over Ritschard, Acosta over Canas, Munar over Bueno, Ruiz over Brancaccio.
Pick: Acosta
Win probability: 72% Acosta · Market: -241 · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (42%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Alejandro Moro Canas goes up against Facundo Diaz Acosta in the Seville round of 16. Facundo Diaz Acosta comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Alejandro Moro Canas is 6-4 across recent matches.
Facundo Diaz Acosta is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Acosta around 72%. The edge belongs to Acosta — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Ruiz
Win probability: 71% Ruiz · Market: -293 · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (43%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Pablo Llamas Ruiz goes up against Raul Brancaccio in the Seville round of 16. Pablo Llamas Ruiz comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Raul Brancaccio is 5-5 across recent matches.
Pablo Llamas Ruiz simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Ruiz.
Pick: Ofner
Win probability: 56% Ofner · Market: -139 · Sets: 3 (42%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Alexander Ritschard goes up against Sebastian Ofner in the Seville round of 16. Sebastian Ofner is 4-6 across recent matches. Alexander Ritschard is 6-4 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 73.2% versus 69% on first-serve points in Ofner's favor. Ritschard comes in off a compressed schedule; Ofner comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Ofner gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Munar
Win probability: 64% Munar · Market: -328 · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)
Wednesday's Seville round of 16 pits Gonzalo Bueno against Jaume Munar on clay. Jaume Munar comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Gonzalo Bueno comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Munar's 68.7% behind the first serve (against 61.7% for Bueno) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Munar comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Munar.
Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.