5 matches are on Wednesday's card at US Open, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Ben Shelton against Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Alcaraz over Shelton, Gauff over Andreeva, Rybakina over Zheng, Zverev over Zandschulp, Blockx over Khachanov.
The boldest call on the card: Blockx over Khachanov — the market disagrees with us there.
September 8, 2026 results: 27-11 → how our picks graded, match by match.
Pick: Alcaraz
Win probability: 67% Alcaraz · Market: -310 · Sets: 4+ (51%) · most likely score 3-0 (36%)
Wednesday's US Open quarterfinal pits Ben Shelton against Carlos Alcaraz on hard. Carlos Alcaraz brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Ben Shelton has won 3 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Alcaraz should have enough here, though Shelton has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Gauff
Win probability: 56% Gauff · Market: -172 · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)
Coco Gauff and Mirra Andreeva meet in the quarterfinal at US Open on Wednesday. Coco Gauff brings a 9-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Mirra Andreeva brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten.
Coco Gauff is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Gauff around 56%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Gauff fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Rybakina
Win probability: 73% Rybakina · Market: -245 · Sets: 2 (66%) · most likely score 2-0 (51%)
Wednesday's US Open quarterfinal pits Elena Rybakina against Qinwen Zheng on hard. Elena Rybakina is rolling — 8 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Qinwen Zheng is rolling — 4 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.
Elena Rybakina simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Rybakina win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Zverev
Win probability: 74% Zverev · Market: -604 · Sets: 3 (51%) · most likely score 3-0 (42%)
Wednesday's US Open quarterfinal pits Alexander Zverev against Botic Van De Zandschulp on hard. Alexander Zverev is rolling — 3 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Botic Van De Zandschulp brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten.
Alexander Zverev is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Zverev around 74%. Zandschulp needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: BlockxUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Khachanov; our numbers say Blockx.
Win probability: 60% Blockx · Market: +153 · Sets: 4+ (68%) · most likely score 3-1 (23%)
Wednesday's US Open quarterfinal pits Alexander Blockx against Karen Khachanov on hard. Alexander Blockx is rolling — 4 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Karen Khachanov has won 3 in a row and 5 of the last 10 overall.
Blockx's 75.1% behind the first serve (against 72% for Khachanov) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Blockx.
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