2 matches are on Friday's card at Barranquilla, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Anna Blinkova against Elsa Jacquemot in the semifinal. Our calls: Jacquemot over Blinkova, Riera over Blinkova.
The boldest call on the card: Riera over Blinkova — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: RieraUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Blinkova; our numbers say Riera.
Win probability: 59% Riera · Market: +185 · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (36%)
Friday's Barranquilla quarterfinal pits Anna Blinkova against Julia Riera on hard. Julia Riera has won 9 of the last 10. Anna Blinkova is 4-6 across recent matches.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Blinkova comes in off a compressed schedule; Riera comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Riera gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: JacquemotUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Blinkova; our numbers say Jacquemot.
Win probability: 51% Jacquemot · Market: +189 · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (28%)
Anna Blinkova and Elsa Jacquemot meet in the semifinal at Barranquilla on Friday. Elsa Jacquemot is rolling — 3 straight wins, 5 of 10 in recent play. Anna Blinkova comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 64.4% versus 61.1% on first-serve points in Jacquemot's favor. Blinkova comes in off a compressed schedule; Jacquemot comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Jacquemot fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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