3 matches are on Friday's card at US Open, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Coco Gauff against Elena Rybakina in the semifinal. Our calls: Rybakina over Gauff, Shelton over Tiafoe, Zverev over Khachanov.
September 10, 2026 results: 10-6 → how our picks graded, match by match.
Pick: Rybakina
Win probability: 60% Rybakina · Market: -103 · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)
Friday's US Open semifinal pits Coco Gauff against Elena Rybakina on hard. Elena Rybakina is rolling — 9 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Coco Gauff has won 10 in a row and 10 of the last 10 overall.
Rybakina's 70% behind the first serve (against 65.8% for Gauff) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. The edge belongs to Rybakina — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Shelton
Win probability: 60% Shelton · Market: -255 · Sets: 4+ (67%) · most likely score 3-0 (24%)
Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe meet in the semifinal at US Open on Friday. Ben Shelton has won 5 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall. Frances Tiafoe is rolling — 5 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play.
Ben Shelton is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Shelton around 60%. Shelton should have enough here, though Tiafoe has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Zverev
Win probability: 75% Zverev · Market: -393 · Sets: 4+ (52%) · most likely score 3-0 (42%)
Friday's US Open semifinal pits Alexander Zverev against Karen Khachanov on hard. Alexander Zverev brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Karen Khachanov brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. If Zverev plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
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