4 matches are on Friday's card at Cassis, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Daniil Glinka against Titouan Droguet in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Droguet over Glinka, Kjaer over Echargui, Blanchet over Masur, Lajal over Bertrand.
Pick: Blanchet
Win probability: 59% Blanchet · Market: -226 · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Friday's Cassis quarterfinal pits Daniel Masur against Ugo Blanchet on hard. Ugo Blanchet comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Daniel Masur comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Blanchet is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Lajal
Win probability: 76% Lajal · Market: -351 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Mark Lajal goes up against Robin Bertrand in the Cassis quarterfinal. Mark Lajal comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Robin Bertrand is 4-6 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Lajal has been winning 71.4% of first-serve points to Bertrand's 63.1%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Lajal comes in off a compressed schedule; Bertrand comes in off a compressed schedule. Bertrand needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Kjaer
Win probability: 58% Kjaer · Market: -209 · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (29%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Moez Echargui goes up against Nicolai Budkov Kjaer in the Cassis quarterfinal. Nicolai Budkov Kjaer comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Moez Echargui comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Echargui comes in off a compressed schedule; Kjaer comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Kjaer is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Droguet
Win probability: 63% Droguet · Market: -256 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
Friday's Cassis quarterfinal pits Daniil Glinka against Titouan Droguet on hard. Titouan Droguet is 6-4 across recent matches. Daniil Glinka has won 7 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Droguet — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
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