3 matches are on Friday's card at Genova, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Laslo Djere against Stefanos Sakellaridis in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Djere over Sakellaridis, Dodig over Valle, Martinez over Aboian.
Pick: Djere
Win probability: 57% Djere · Market: -200 · Sets: 3 (45%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Laslo Djere goes up against Stefanos Sakellaridis in the Genova quarterfinal. Laslo Djere has won 7 of the last 10. Stefanos Sakellaridis has won 7 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Djere gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Martinez
Win probability: 59% Martinez · Market: -959 · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (36%)
Friday's Genova quarterfinal pits Pedro Martinez against Valerio Aboian on clay. Pedro Martinez comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Valerio Aboian comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Pedro Martinez simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Martinez is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Dodig
Win probability: 64% Dodig · Market: -171 · Sets: 3 (51%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
Friday's Genova quarterfinal pits Enrico Dalla Valle against Matej Dodig on clay. Matej Dodig is rolling — 5 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Enrico Dalla Valle has won 5 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 69.9% versus 65.3% on first-serve points in Dodig's favor. Valle arrives with very little recovery time. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Dodig.
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