3 matches are on Friday's card at Genova, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Laslo Djere against Stefanos Sakellaridis in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Djere over Sakellaridis, Dodig over Valle, Martinez over Aboian.
Pick: Djere
Win probability: 57% Djere · Market: -200 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Laslo Djere goes up against Stefanos Sakellaridis in the Genova quarterfinal. Laslo Djere has won 7 of the last 10. Stefanos Sakellaridis has won 7 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Djere gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Martinez
Win probability: 59% Martinez · Market: -959 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
Friday's Genova quarterfinal pits Pedro Martinez against Valerio Aboian on clay. Pedro Martinez comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Valerio Aboian comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Martinez is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Dodig
Win probability: 64% Dodig · Market: -171 · We call it in 3 sets (51%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Friday's Genova quarterfinal pits Enrico Dalla Valle against Matej Dodig on clay. Matej Dodig is rolling — 5 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Enrico Dalla Valle has won 5 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 69.9% versus 65.3% on first-serve points in Dodig's favor. Valle arrives with very little recovery time. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Dodig.
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