2 matches are on Friday's card at Istanbul, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Dimitar Kuzmanov against Harold Mayot in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Mayot over Kuzmanov, Maestrelli over Kasnikowski.
The boldest call on the card: Maestrelli over Kasnikowski — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Mayot
Win probability: 66% Mayot · Market: -140 · Sets: 3 (48%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
Dimitar Kuzmanov and Harold Mayot meet in the quarterfinal at Istanbul on Friday. Harold Mayot has won 7 of the last 10. Dimitar Kuzmanov has won 6 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 70.3% versus 64.1% on first-serve points in Mayot's favor. The edge belongs to Mayot — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: MaestrelliUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Kasnikowski the favorite; our numbers say Maestrelli.
Win probability: 56% Maestrelli · Market: +130 · Sets: 3 (50%) · most likely score 2-0 (28%)
Francesco Maestrelli and Maks Kasnikowski meet in the quarterfinal at Istanbul on Friday. Francesco Maestrelli is 3-7 across recent matches. Maks Kasnikowski is 6-4 across recent matches.
Francesco Maestrelli simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Maestrelli is exactly that — a lean.
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