4 matches are on Friday's card at Tulln, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva against Lukas Neumayer in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Neumayer over Silva, Kolar over Barrena, Heide over Brunold, Sachko over Soto.
Pick: Sachko
Win probability: 57% Sachko · Market: -201 · We call it in 3 sets (50%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (29%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Matias Soto goes up against Vitaliy Sachko in the Tulln quarterfinal. Vitaliy Sachko comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Matias Soto comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Vitaliy Sachko is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Sachko around 57%. Little separates them; Sachko gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Kolar
Win probability: 51% Kolar · Market: -109 · We call it in 3 sets (48%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (26%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Alex Barrena goes up against Zdenek Kolar in the Tulln quarterfinal. Zdenek Kolar has won 3 of the last 10. Alex Barrena is 6-4 across recent matches.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Kolar gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Heide
Win probability: 71% Heide · Market: -208 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (41%)
Gustavo Heide and Mika Brunold meet in the quarterfinal at Tulln on Friday. Gustavo Heide is 6-4 across recent matches. Mika Brunold has won 5 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 71.2% versus 67.1% on first-serve points in Heide's favor. Heide comes in off a compressed schedule; Brunold comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Heide.
Pick: Neumayer
Win probability: 62% Neumayer · Market: -235 · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Friday's Tulln quarterfinal pits Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva against Lukas Neumayer on clay. Lukas Neumayer has won 4 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall. Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva is 4-6 across recent matches.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Silva comes in off a compressed schedule; Neumayer comes in off a compressed schedule. Neumayer should have enough here, though Silva has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
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