6 matches are on Sunday's card at Guadalajara, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Bianca Andreescu against Cristina Bucsa in the round of 32. Our calls: Andreescu over Bucsa, Tjen over Vidmanova, Stearns over Arango, Parks over Lepchenko, Boisson over Udvardy, Parks over Sherif.
Pick: Stearns
Win probability: 58% Stearns · Market: -193 · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)
Sunday's Guadalajara round of 32 pits Emiliana Arango against Peyton Stearns on hard. Peyton Stearns has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Emiliana Arango comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Stearns gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Parks
Win probability: 57% Parks · Market: -237 · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
Alycia Parks and Mayar Sherif meet in the round of 32 at Guadalajara on Sunday. Alycia Parks comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Mayar Sherif has dropped 2 straight and sits at 8-2 over the last ten.
Parks's 70.2% behind the first serve (against 58.6% for Sherif) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Parks fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Tjen
Win probability: 56% Tjen · Market: -123 · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Darja Vidmanova goes up against Janice Tjen in the Guadalajara round of 32. Janice Tjen is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10). Darja Vidmanova has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 67.2% versus 63.5% on first-serve points in Tjen's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Tjen is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Boisson
Win probability: 53% Boisson · Market: -152 · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Lois Boisson and Panna Udvardy meet in the round of 32 at Guadalajara on Sunday. Lois Boisson has dropped 2 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten. Panna Udvardy limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
Boisson's 68.8% behind the first serve (against 62.4% for Udvardy) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Boisson fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Andreescu
Win probability: 50% Andreescu · Market: -115 · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (30%)
Sunday's Guadalajara round of 32 pits Bianca Andreescu against Cristina Bucsa on hard. Bianca Andreescu limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Cristina Bucsa has won 4 of the last 10.
Andreescu's 63.8% behind the first serve (against 58.6% for Bucsa) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Andreescu is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Parks
Win probability: 57% Parks · Market: -192 · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Alycia Parks goes up against Varvara Lepchenko in the Guadalajara round of 32. Alycia Parks is 4-6 across recent matches. Varvara Lepchenko is 4-6 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Parks has been winning 70.2% of first-serve points to Lepchenko's 60.3%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Parks gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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