2 matches are on Monday's card at Sao Paulo, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Kaitlin Quevedo against Leolia Jeanjean in the round of 32. Our calls: Jeanjean over Quevedo, Badosa over Semenistaja.
Pick: Badosa
Win probability: 68% Badosa · Market: -484 · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (44%)
Monday's Sao Paulo round of 32 pits Darja Semenistaja against Paula Badosa on hard. Paula Badosa is 8-2 across recent matches. Darja Semenistaja has dropped 7 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Badosa has been winning 65% of first-serve points to Semenistaja's 57.7%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Badosa — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Jeanjean
Win probability: 51% Jeanjean · Market: -104 · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Monday's Sao Paulo round of 32 pits Kaitlin Quevedo against Leolia Jeanjean on hard. Leolia Jeanjean has won 6 of the last 10. Kaitlin Quevedo comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Kaitlin Quevedo leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Jeanjean fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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