2 matches are on Tuesday's card at Sao Paulo, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Elina Avanesyan against Julia Riera in the round of 32. Our calls: Riera over Avanesyan, Podoroska over Stefanini.
The boldest call on the card: Podoroska over Stefanini — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: PodoroskaUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Stefanini; our numbers say Podoroska.
Win probability: 59% Podoroska · Market: +190 · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)
Tuesday's Sao Paulo round of 32 pits Lucrezia Stefanini against Nadia Podoroska on hard. Nadia Podoroska is 3-7 across recent matches. Lucrezia Stefanini has won 4 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Podoroska has been winning 62.2% of first-serve points to Stefanini's 55%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Podoroska fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Riera
Win probability: 50% Riera · Market: +122 · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (29%)
Tuesday's Sao Paulo round of 32 pits Elina Avanesyan against Julia Riera on hard. Julia Riera is 8-2 across recent matches. Elina Avanesyan comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 61.8% versus 57.5% on first-serve points in Riera's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Riera is exactly that — a lean.
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