6 matches are on Tuesday's card at Guadalajara and Sao Paulo, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Elina Avanesyan against Julia Riera in the round of 32. Our calls: Riera over Avanesyan, Parry over Stearns, Bejlek over Parks, Samsonova over Jacquemot, Bucsa over Udvardy, Podoroska over Stefanini.
The boldest call on the card: Podoroska over Stefanini — the market disagrees with us there.
September 14, 2026 results: 13-2 → how our picks graded, match by match.
Pick: Riera
Win probability: 50% Riera · Market: +122 · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (29%)
Tuesday's Sao Paulo round of 32 pits Elina Avanesyan against Julia Riera on hard. Julia Riera is 8-2 across recent matches. Elina Avanesyan comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 61.8% versus 57.5% on first-serve points in Riera's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Riera is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Parry
Win probability: 60% Parry · Market: +113 · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)
Diane Parry and Peyton Stearns meet in the round of 16 at Guadalajara on Tuesday. Diane Parry comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Peyton Stearns has won 5 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 66.1% versus 60.7% on first-serve points in Parry's favor. The edge belongs to Parry — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Bejlek
Win probability: 66% Bejlek · Market: -279 · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (42%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Alycia Parks goes up against Sara Bejlek in the Guadalajara round of 16. Sara Bejlek has dropped 2 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten. Alycia Parks has won 4 of the last 10.
Sara Bejlek simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Bejlek should have enough here, though Parks has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Samsonova
Win probability: 58% Samsonova · Market: -312 · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)
Elsa Jacquemot and Liudmila Samsonova meet in the round of 32 at Guadalajara on Tuesday. Liudmila Samsonova limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Elsa Jacquemot is rolling — 3 straight wins, 5 of 10 in recent play.
Hold strength tells the story — 69.2% versus 64.4% on first-serve points in Samsonova's favor. Little separates them; Samsonova gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Bucsa
Win probability: 55% Bucsa · Market: -211 · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
Tuesday's Guadalajara round of 16 pits Cristina Bucsa against Panna Udvardy on hard. Cristina Bucsa is 4-6 across recent matches. Panna Udvardy has won 4 of the last 10.
Cristina Bucsa simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Bucsa gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: PodoroskaUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Stefanini; our numbers say Podoroska.
Win probability: 59% Podoroska · Market: +190 · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)
Tuesday's Sao Paulo round of 32 pits Lucrezia Stefanini against Nadia Podoroska on hard. Nadia Podoroska is 3-7 across recent matches. Lucrezia Stefanini has won 4 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Podoroska has been winning 62.2% of first-serve points to Stefanini's 55%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Podoroska fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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