4 matches are on Wednesday's card at Guadalajara, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Marta Kostyuk against Taylor Townsend in the round of 16. Our calls: Kostyuk over Townsend, Jovic over Sonmez, Tjen over Stephens, Frech over Dolehide.
Pick: Tjen
Win probability: 58% Tjen · Market: -123 · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Janice Tjen goes up against Sloane Stephens in the Guadalajara round of 16. Janice Tjen has won 4 of the last 10. Sloane Stephens is 4-6 across recent matches.
Tjen's 67.5% behind the first serve (against 60.8% for Stephens) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Tjen gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Jovic
Win probability: 66% Jovic · Market: -322 · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (45%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Iva Jovic goes up against Zeynep Sonmez in the Guadalajara round of 16. Iva Jovic comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Zeynep Sonmez has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
Iva Jovic simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Jovic should have enough here, though Sonmez has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Frech
Win probability: 61% Frech · Market: -178 · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Caroline Dolehide goes up against Magdalena Frech in the Guadalajara round of 16. Magdalena Frech limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Caroline Dolehide comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Magdalena Frech is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Frech around 61%. The edge belongs to Frech — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Kostyuk
Win probability: 59% Kostyuk · Market: -229 · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Marta Kostyuk goes up against Taylor Townsend in the Guadalajara round of 16. Marta Kostyuk is 7-3 across recent matches. Taylor Townsend has won 7 of the last 10.
Marta Kostyuk is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Kostyuk around 59%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Kostyuk fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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