2 matches are on Saturday's card at Guadalajara, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Liudmila Samsonova against Peyton Stearns in the semifinal. Our calls: Samsonova over Stearns, Jovic over Stearns.
Pick: Samsonova
Win probability: 57% Samsonova · Market: -141 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Liudmila Samsonova goes up against Peyton Stearns in the Guadalajara semifinal. Liudmila Samsonova is 6-4 across recent matches. Peyton Stearns has won 5 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Samsonova has been winning 69.3% of first-serve points to Stearns's 60.7%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Samsonova fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Jovic
Win probability: 66% Jovic · Market: -293 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
It all comes down to Saturday at Guadalajara, where Iva Jovic faces Peyton Stearns for the trophy. Iva Jovic has won 7 of the last 10. Peyton Stearns has won 3 in a row and 5 of the last 10 overall.
Iva Jovic simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Jovic should have enough here, though Stearns has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
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