One match is on Saturday's card at Guadalajara, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Liudmila Samsonova against Peyton Stearns in the semifinal. Our calls: Samsonova over Stearns.
Pick: Samsonova
Win probability: 57% Samsonova · Market: -141 · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (36%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Liudmila Samsonova goes up against Peyton Stearns in the Guadalajara semifinal. Liudmila Samsonova is 6-4 across recent matches. Peyton Stearns has won 5 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Samsonova has been winning 69.3% of first-serve points to Stearns's 60.7%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Samsonova fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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