4 matches are on Saturday's card at Guadalajara and Sao Paulo, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Liudmila Samsonova against Peyton Stearns in the semifinal. Our calls: Samsonova over Stearns, Jovic over Stearns, Blinkova over Quevedo, Badosa over Podoroska.
September 18, 2026 results: 12-2 → how our picks graded, match by match.
Pick: Samsonova
Win probability: 57% Samsonova · Market: -141 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Liudmila Samsonova goes up against Peyton Stearns in the Guadalajara semifinal. Liudmila Samsonova is 6-4 across recent matches. Peyton Stearns has won 5 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Samsonova has been winning 69.3% of first-serve points to Stearns's 60.7%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Samsonova fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Jovic
Win probability: 66% Jovic · Market: -293 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
It all comes down to Saturday at Guadalajara, where Iva Jovic faces Peyton Stearns for the trophy. Iva Jovic has won 7 of the last 10. Peyton Stearns has won 3 in a row and 5 of the last 10 overall.
Iva Jovic simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Jovic should have enough here, though Stearns has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Blinkova
Win probability: 54% Blinkova · Market: -144 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Anna Blinkova and Kaitlin Quevedo meet in the semifinal at Sao Paulo on Saturday. Anna Blinkova is 6-4 across recent matches. Kaitlin Quevedo is 5-5 across recent matches.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Blinkova comes in off a compressed schedule; Quevedo comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Blinkova is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Badosa
Win probability: 73% Badosa · Market: -394 · We call it in 2 sets (68%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (51%)
Saturday's Sao Paulo semifinal pits Nadia Podoroska against Paula Badosa on hard. Paula Badosa has won 3 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall. Nadia Podoroska has won 4 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Badosa win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
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