6 matches are on Tuesday's card at Seoul, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Himeno Sakatsume against Taylah Preston in the round of 32. Our calls: Preston over Sakatsume, Ostapenko over Zakharova, Kenin over Charaeva, Ruse over Lys, Birrell over Zidansek, Bondar over Zarazua.
Pick: Bondar
Win probability: 55% Bondar · Market: -175 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
Anna Bondar and Renata Zarazua meet in the round of 32 at Seoul on Tuesday. Anna Bondar comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Renata Zarazua has dropped 4 straight and sits at 1-9 over the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Bondar has been winning 64.5% of first-serve points to Zarazua's 57.3%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Bondar fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Ostapenko
Win probability: 55% Ostapenko · Market: -137 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
Anastasia Zakharova and Jelena Ostapenko meet in the round of 32 at Seoul on Tuesday. Jelena Ostapenko has dropped 3 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten. Anastasia Zakharova limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Ostapenko has been winning 64.9% of first-serve points to Zakharova's 59.2%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Ostapenko fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Birrell
Win probability: 53% Birrell · Market: -149 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
Tuesday's Seoul round of 32 pits Kimberly Birrell against Tamara Zidansek on hard. Kimberly Birrell comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Tamara Zidansek limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
Birrell's 64.5% behind the first serve (against 58.2% for Zidansek) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Birrell gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Ruse
Win probability: 52% Ruse · Market: -146 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Tuesday's Seoul round of 32 pits Elena Gabriela Ruse against Eva Lys on hard. Elena Gabriela Ruse is 5-5 across recent matches. Eva Lys is 3-7 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 63.8% versus 58.7% on first-serve points in Ruse's favor. Little separates them; Ruse gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Preston
Win probability: 55% Preston · Market: +112 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
Tuesday's Seoul round of 32 pits Himeno Sakatsume against Taylah Preston on hard. Taylah Preston is 7-3 across recent matches. Himeno Sakatsume is 4-6 across recent matches.
Taylah Preston simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Preston is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Kenin
Win probability: 52% Kenin · Market: -103 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Alina Charaeva goes up against Sofia Kenin in the Seoul round of 32. Sofia Kenin has won 3 of the last 10. Alina Charaeva comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Kenin gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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