3 matches are on Wednesday's card at Plovdiv 4 (Bulgaria), and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Calvin Hemery against Oriol Roca Batalla in the round of 16. Our calls: Hemery over Batalla, Gurri over Jover, Taberner over Wiskandt.
The boldest call on the card: Hemery over Batalla — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: HemeryUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Batalla the favorite; our numbers say Hemery.
Win probability: 54% Hemery · Market: +143 · We call it in 3 sets (51%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (28%)
Calvin Hemery and Oriol Roca Batalla meet in the round of 16 at Plovdiv 4 (Bulgaria) on Wednesday. Calvin Hemery has dropped 3 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Oriol Roca Batalla comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Hemery has been winning 72.8% of first-serve points to Batalla's 67.8%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Hemery fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Taberner
Win probability: 70% Taberner · Market: -244 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)
Carlos Taberner and Max Wiskandt meet in the round of 16 at Plovdiv 4 (Bulgaria) on Wednesday. Carlos Taberner has dropped 3 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten. Max Wiskandt limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Taberner comes in off a compressed schedule; Wiskandt comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Taberner.
Pick: Gurri
Win probability: 70% Gurri · Market: -236 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Carlos Sanchez Jover goes up against Max Alcala Gurri in the Plovdiv 4 (Bulgaria) round of 16. Max Alcala Gurri brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Carlos Sanchez Jover limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
Max Alcala Gurri is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Gurri around 70%. Jover comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Gurri — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
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