9 matches are on Wednesday's card across 4 events, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Aleksandar Vukic against Kyrian Jacquet in the round of 32. Our calls: Jacquet over Vukic, Mertens over Krejcikova, Baez over Brooksby, Volynets over Rakhimova, Walton over Royer, Anisimova over Gibson, and 3 more.
The boldest call on the card: Baez over Brooksby — the market disagrees with us there.
September 22, 2026 results: 21-11 → how our picks graded, match by match.
Pick: Jacquet
Win probability: 51% Jacquet · Market: +105 · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (26%)
Wednesday's Hangzhou round of 32 pits Aleksandar Vukic against Kyrian Jacquet on hard. Kyrian Jacquet is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (2 of the last 10). Aleksandar Vukic limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Jacquet is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Mertens
Win probability: 58% Mertens · Market: -196 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Barbora Krejcikova goes up against Elise Mertens in the Singapore round of 16. Elise Mertens comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Barbora Krejcikova has dropped 4 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Mertens gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: BaezUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Brooksby the favorite; our numbers say Baez.
Win probability: 52% Baez · Market: +128 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Wednesday's Chengdu round of 32 pits Jenson Brooksby against Sebastian Baez on hard. Sebastian Baez comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Jenson Brooksby is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Baez is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Volynets
Win probability: 52% Volynets · Market: -158 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (29%)
Wednesday's Seoul round of 16 pits Kamilla Rakhimova against Katie Volynets on hard. Katie Volynets comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Kamilla Rakhimova has won 6 of the last 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Volynets is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Walton
Win probability: 51% Walton · Market: -107 · We call it in 2 sets (58%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Wednesday's Hangzhou round of 32 pits Adam Walton against Valentin Royer on hard. Adam Walton limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Valentin Royer has won 6 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 70.8% versus 26.2% on first-serve points in Walton's favor. Little separates them; Walton gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Anisimova
Win probability: 76% Anisimova · Market: -324 · We call it in 2 sets (68%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (54%)
Amanda Anisimova and Talia Gibson meet in the round of 16 at Singapore on Wednesday. Amanda Anisimova comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Talia Gibson comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
Amanda Anisimova simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Gibson needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Andreeva
Win probability: 76% Andreeva · Market: -663 · We call it in 2 sets (70%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (55%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Aliaksandra Sasnovich goes up against Mirra Andreeva in the Singapore round of 16. Mirra Andreeva is 7-3 across recent matches. Aliaksandra Sasnovich comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Andreeva has been winning 63.6% of first-serve points to Sasnovich's 60.5%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Sasnovich needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Fernandez
Win probability: 67% Fernandez · Market: -251 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
Alycia Parks and Leylah Fernandez meet in the round of 16 at Singapore on Wednesday. Leylah Fernandez has won 6 of the last 10. Alycia Parks comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Alycia Parks has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 3 against Leylah Fernandez. On hard they're dead even at 1-1 — worth more than the overall number this week.
Leylah Fernandez simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Parks comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Fernandez.
Pick: Chwalinska
Win probability: 56% Chwalinska · Market: -193 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
Wednesday's Singapore round of 16 pits Maja Chwalinska against Oleksandra Oliynykova on hard. Maja Chwalinska comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Oleksandra Oliynykova comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Oliynykova comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Chwalinska gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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