5 matches are on Wednesday's card at Singapore, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Barbora Krejcikova against Elise Mertens in the round of 16. Our calls: Mertens over Krejcikova, Anisimova over Gibson, Andreeva over Sasnovich, Fernandez over Parks, Chwalinska over Oliynykova.
Pick: Andreeva
Win probability: 76% Andreeva · Market: -663 · We call it in 2 sets (70%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (55%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Aliaksandra Sasnovich goes up against Mirra Andreeva in the Singapore round of 16. Mirra Andreeva is 7-3 across recent matches. Aliaksandra Sasnovich comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Andreeva has been winning 63.6% of first-serve points to Sasnovich's 60.5%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Sasnovich needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Anisimova
Win probability: 76% Anisimova · Market: -324 · We call it in 2 sets (68%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (54%)
Amanda Anisimova and Talia Gibson meet in the round of 16 at Singapore on Wednesday. Amanda Anisimova comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Talia Gibson comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
Amanda Anisimova simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Gibson needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Fernandez
Win probability: 67% Fernandez · Market: -251 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
Alycia Parks and Leylah Fernandez meet in the round of 16 at Singapore on Wednesday. Leylah Fernandez has won 6 of the last 10. Alycia Parks comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Alycia Parks has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 3 against Leylah Fernandez. On hard they're dead even at 1-1 — worth more than the overall number this week.
Leylah Fernandez simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Parks comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Fernandez.
Pick: Chwalinska
Win probability: 56% Chwalinska · Market: -193 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
Wednesday's Singapore round of 16 pits Maja Chwalinska against Oleksandra Oliynykova on hard. Maja Chwalinska comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Oleksandra Oliynykova comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Oliynykova comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Chwalinska gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Mertens
Win probability: 58% Mertens · Market: -196 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Barbora Krejcikova goes up against Elise Mertens in the Singapore round of 16. Elise Mertens comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Barbora Krejcikova has dropped 4 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Mertens gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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