3 matches are on Friday's card at Buenos Aires 3, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alex Barrena against Juan Carlos Prado Angelo in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Angelo over Barrena, Mena over Kicker, Dias over Ribeiro.
Pick: Dias
Win probability: 54% Dias · Market: -104 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Eduardo Ribeiro goes up against Pedro Boscardin Dias in the Buenos Aires 3 quarterfinal. Pedro Boscardin Dias has won 2 of the last 10. Eduardo Ribeiro has won 4 of the last 10.
Pedro Boscardin Dias simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Ribeiro comes in off a compressed schedule; Dias comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Dias is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Mena
Win probability: 60% Mena · Market: -139 · We call it in 3 sets (48%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Facundo Mena goes up against Nicolas Kicker in the Buenos Aires 3 quarterfinal. Facundo Mena brings a 7-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Nicolas Kicker has won 7 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Mena has been winning 71.7% of first-serve points to Kicker's 64.1%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Mena gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Angelo
Win probability: 55% Angelo · Market: -120 · We call it in 3 sets (51%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (28%)
Alex Barrena and Juan Carlos Prado Angelo meet in the quarterfinal at Buenos Aires 3 on Friday. Juan Carlos Prado Angelo is rolling — 3 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Alex Barrena comes in at 8 wins from the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Barrena comes in off a compressed schedule; Angelo comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Angelo gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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