4 matches are on Friday's card at Chengdu, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Jenson Brooksby against Lorenzo Sonego in the round of 16. Our calls: Sonego over Brooksby, Tabilo over Mannarino, Shapovalov over Kopriva, Zandschulp over Basilashvili.
The boldest call on the card: Sonego over Brooksby — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Shapovalov
Win probability: 70% Shapovalov · Market: -352 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (43%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Denis Shapovalov goes up against Vit Kopriva in the Chengdu round of 16. Denis Shapovalov comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Vit Kopriva is 3-7 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 74.7% versus 66.5% on first-serve points in Shapovalov's favor. Shapovalov comes in off a compressed schedule. Shapovalov should have enough here, though Kopriva has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: SonegoUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Brooksby the favorite; our numbers say Sonego.
Win probability: 52% Sonego · Market: +126 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Friday's Chengdu round of 16 pits Jenson Brooksby against Lorenzo Sonego on hard. Lorenzo Sonego limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Jenson Brooksby comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Sonego has been winning 72% of first-serve points to Brooksby's 67%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Sonego comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Sonego gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Zandschulp
Win probability: 69% Zandschulp · Market: -174 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (45%)
Botic Van De Zandschulp and Nikoloz Basilashvili meet in the round of 16 at Chengdu on Friday. Botic Van De Zandschulp has won 7 of the last 10. Nikoloz Basilashvili has won 5 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Zandschulp has been winning 71.9% of first-serve points to Basilashvili's 68.6%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Zandschulp should have enough here, though Basilashvili has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Tabilo
Win probability: 64% Tabilo · Market: -186 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (41%)
Friday's Chengdu round of 16 pits Adrian Mannarino against Alejandro Tabilo on hard. Alejandro Tabilo limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Adrian Mannarino has won 3 of the last 10.
Alejandro Tabilo simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Tabilo.
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