2 matches are on Friday's card at Tolentino, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Julia Grabher against Nuria Brancaccio in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Grabher over Brancaccio, Selekhmeteva over Gorgodze.
Pick: Grabher
Win probability: 62% Grabher · Market: -136 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (39%)
Friday's Tolentino quarterfinal pits Julia Grabher against Nuria Brancaccio on clay. Julia Grabher is 6-4 across recent matches. Nuria Brancaccio comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Grabher's 61.5% behind the first serve (against 55.1% for Brancaccio) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Grabher should have enough here, though Brancaccio has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Selekhmeteva
Win probability: 59% Selekhmeteva · Market: -183 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Ekaterine Gorgodze goes up against Oksana Selekhmeteva in the Tolentino quarterfinal. Oksana Selekhmeteva has won 5 of the last 10. Ekaterine Gorgodze is 5-5 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Selekhmeteva has been winning 61.1% of first-serve points to Gorgodze's 53.5%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Gorgodze comes in off a compressed schedule; Selekhmeteva comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Selekhmeteva is exactly that — a lean.
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