4 matches are on Saturday's card at Hangzhou, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Quentin Halys against Roman Safiullin in the round of 16. Our calls: Safiullin over Halys, Medvedev over Royer, Majchrzak over Bu, Wong over Vallejo.
Pick: Medvedev
Win probability: 74% Medvedev · Market: -297 · We call it in 2 sets (68%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (53%)
Daniil Medvedev and Valentin Royer meet in the round of 16 at Hangzhou on Saturday. Daniil Medvedev comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Valentin Royer comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Medvedev's 72.8% behind the first serve (against 26.2% for Royer) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Royer needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Wong
Win probability: 57% Wong · Market: -158 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Coleman Wong goes up against Daniel Vallejo in the Hangzhou round of 16. Coleman Wong has won 4 of the last 10. Daniel Vallejo comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 73.7% versus 65% on first-serve points in Wong's favor. Little separates them; Wong gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Majchrzak
Win probability: 56% Majchrzak · Market: -120 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (29%)
Kamil Majchrzak and Y. Bu meet in the round of 16 at Hangzhou on Saturday. Kamil Majchrzak is 4-6 across recent matches. Y. Bu comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Majchrzak fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Safiullin
Win probability: 52% Safiullin · Market: -121 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (29%)
Quentin Halys and Roman Safiullin meet in the round of 16 at Hangzhou on Saturday. Roman Safiullin comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Quentin Halys limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Safiullin fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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