7 matches are on Wednesday's card at Jingshan, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Dalibor Svrcina against Marat Sharipov in the round of 32. Our calls: Sharipov over Svrcina, Bellucci over Muller, Harris over Galarneau, Atmane over Ymer, Cina over Mccabe, Biryukov over Imamura, and 1 more.
Pick: Bellucci
Win probability: 58% Bellucci · Market: -162 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Alexandre Muller goes up against Mattia Bellucci in the Jingshan round of 32. Mattia Bellucci is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10). Alexandre Muller is 5-5 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Bellucci has been winning 71.1% of first-serve points to Muller's 67.2%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Bellucci gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Harris
Win probability: 65% Harris · Market: -285 · We call it in 3 sets (42%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (39%)
Alexis Galarneau and Lloyd Harris meet in the round of 32 at Jingshan on Wednesday. Lloyd Harris comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Alexis Galarneau is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).
The serve is where this match separates: Harris has been winning 74.3% of first-serve points to Galarneau's 68.3%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Harris — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Sharipov
Win probability: 55% Sharipov · Market: -100 · We call it in 3 sets (48%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (28%)
Wednesday's Jingshan round of 32 pits Dalibor Svrcina against Marat Sharipov on hard. Marat Sharipov is rolling — 5 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Dalibor Svrcina is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10).
The serve is where this match separates: Sharipov has been winning 76.8% of first-serve points to Svrcina's 63.2%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Sharipov fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Biryukov
Win probability: 53% Biryukov · Market: -120 · We call it in 3 sets (48%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (27%)
Masamichi Imamura and Petr Bar Biryukov meet in the round of 32 at Jingshan on Wednesday. Petr Bar Biryukov has won 4 of the last 10. Masamichi Imamura limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 74.5% versus 66.7% on first-serve points in Biryukov's favor. Little separates them; Biryukov gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Atmane
Win probability: 66% Atmane · Market: -304 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)
Elias Ymer and Terence Atmane meet in the round of 32 at Jingshan on Wednesday. Terence Atmane limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Elias Ymer has won 4 of the last 10.
Atmane's 72.9% behind the first serve (against 69.2% for Ymer) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Atmane.
Pick: Sweeny
Win probability: 57% Sweeny · Market: -191 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Dane Sweeny goes up against Omar Jasika in the Jingshan round of 32. Dane Sweeny is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10). Omar Jasika has won 4 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Sweeny fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Cina
Win probability: 56% Cina · Market: -326 · We call it in 3 sets (50%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (29%)
Federico Cina and James Mccabe meet in the round of 32 at Jingshan on Wednesday. Federico Cina is 2-8 across recent matches. James Mccabe has dropped 3 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Cina gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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