3 matches are on Wednesday's card at Porto, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Damir Dzumhur against Moez Echargui in the round of 32. Our calls: Dzumhur over Echargui, Butvilas over Geerts, Virtanen over Pereira.
Pick: Virtanen
Win probability: 68% Virtanen · Market: -256 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (45%)
Otto Virtanen and T. Pereira meet in the round of 32 at Porto on Wednesday. Otto Virtanen is 5-5 across recent matches. T. Pereira is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).
The serve is where this match separates: Virtanen has been winning 74% of first-serve points to Pereira's 65.8%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Virtanen.
Pick: Butvilas
Win probability: 64% Butvilas · Market: -327 · We call it in 3 sets (50%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Wednesday's Porto round of 32 pits Edas Butvilas against Michael Geerts on hard. Edas Butvilas comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Michael Geerts has won 4 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Butvilas — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Dzumhur
Win probability: 54% Dzumhur · Market: -141 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Damir Dzumhur goes up against Moez Echargui in the Porto round of 32. Damir Dzumhur is 6-4 across recent matches. Moez Echargui comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Dzumhur gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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