3 matches are on Thursday's card at Mouilleron-Le-Captif, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Harold Mayot against Tristan Schoolkate in the round of 16. Our calls: Mayot over Schoolkate, Chidekh over Blanchet, Schwaerzler over Wendelken.
Pick: Schwaerzler
Win probability: 53% Schwaerzler · Market: +119 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (27%)
Thursday's Mouilleron-Le-Captif round of 16 pits Harry Wendelken against Joel Schwaerzler on hard. Joel Schwaerzler is 7-3 across recent matches. Harry Wendelken comes in at 2 wins from the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Schwaerzler fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Chidekh
Win probability: 58% Chidekh · Market: -212 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Clement Chidekh goes up against Ugo Blanchet in the Mouilleron-Le-Captif round of 16. Clement Chidekh comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Ugo Blanchet is 4-6 across recent matches.
Clement Chidekh simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Chidekh fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Mayot
Win probability: 59% Mayot · Market: -143 · We call it in 3 sets (51%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (30%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Harold Mayot goes up against Tristan Schoolkate in the Mouilleron-Le-Captif round of 16. Harold Mayot is 7-3 across recent matches. Tristan Schoolkate has won 5 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Mayot is exactly that — a lean.
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