4 matches are on Sunday's card at Beijing, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alexander Zverev against Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Zverev over Djokovic, Minaur over Rublev, Medvedev over Cerundolo, Hurkacz over Khachanov.
The boldest call on the card: Hurkacz over Khachanov — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: HurkaczUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Khachanov the favorite; our numbers say Hurkacz.
Win probability: 58% Hurkacz · Market: +136 · We call it in 2 sets (58%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Hubert Hurkacz goes up against Karen Khachanov in the Beijing quarterfinal. Hubert Hurkacz comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Karen Khachanov is 6-4 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 75.9% versus 72% on first-serve points in Hurkacz's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Hurkacz is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Medvedev
Win probability: 64% Medvedev · Market: -210 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (41%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Daniil Medvedev goes up against Francisco Cerundolo in the Beijing quarterfinal. Daniil Medvedev brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Francisco Cerundolo comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Medvedev's 72.8% behind the first serve (against 67.6% for Cerundolo) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Medvedev.
Pick: Minaur
Win probability: 57% Minaur · Market: -117 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
Alex De Minaur and Andrey Rublev meet in the quarterfinal at Beijing on Sunday. Alex De Minaur has won 4 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Andrey Rublev has won 6 of the last 10.
Alex De Minaur simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Minaur is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Zverev
Win probability: 56% Zverev · Market: -220 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
Sunday's Beijing quarterfinal pits Alexander Zverev against Novak Djokovic on hard. Alexander Zverev comes in at 9 wins from the last ten. Novak Djokovic is 7-3 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Zverev has been winning 73.7% of first-serve points to Djokovic's 70.6%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Zverev gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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